I missed the 5pm games completely. Life got in the way and I had to take my daughter out, what a cheek!
I guess it’s hard to be a total slave to football but I’m sure I didn’t miss too much. Looking at the 5pm results I am pretty certain that there would have been no opportunity to trade the Ukraine v Poland game anyway and I suspect that, had I traded Northern Ireland v Germany, I would either have just taken whatever profit I was able to create on AO and 0-0 at full time and left it at that or added a small 0-1 lay that I would have later reversed. So maybe I missed a little profit from the German game but not to worry.
I have no idea what the games looked like but highlights later suggested that the Irish were heroic against Germany, especially the goalkeeper, Michael McGovern. I did manage, fortunately, to get back in time to do something on both the 8pm games though.
Czech Republic v Turkey
Produced a surprising early goal for Turkey at 10 minutes which allowed me to lay AOAW for a quick £5. The odds were borderline for an in-play move of that nature (16) but, honestly, could you ever see Turkey scoring 4 in any game? I couldn’t. I saw it as a reasonable call. After the goal I waited for the 0-1 odds to fall to a more reasonable level and then decided that I would risk a lay on 0-1 for the chance of taking profit up from just under £5 to just under £7. If I needed to reverse that I had plenty of time left in the game.
That doesn’t seem like much of a worthwhile increase but, let me tell you, if you took your average game profit up from (say) £4 to £6 that is a 33% increase in profits so for me it is sometimes worthwhile and I started to actually watch the Turkey game on another screen after that to see if they were going for it and I saw that they were and so were the Czechs. My play here was that I would write off all profit and return the game to scratch (by backing 0-1 again) if I needed to later.
I didn’t need to, there was a second goal around 65 minutes. I would have had to reverse the 0-1 pretty soon thereafter if there had not been another goal but now I was home and clear. I had, in truth, expected it to be a Czech Republic equaliser but shock of all shocks, the Turkish team produced a 2nd goal. Was 0-4 a possibility then? It’s always possible but I couldn’t see the Czech Republic throwing in the towel like Turkey did against Spain so I still felt comfortable and I certainly wasn’t going to lay 0-2 at that stage.
Croatia v Spain
I think I must be one of a very small number of people who were not surprised that Croatia beat Spain. I have fancied Croatia to do well from the start and have said as much in previous blogs. What did surprise me some was that they were able to do it without Luka Modric and all credit to the manager for having the guts (assuming he had a choice) to leave Modric out.
From a trading perspective it was easy enough. The odds, perhaps surprisingly, given that so many “experts” were already calling Spain tournament favourites, on AO were just a little too high for me to get involved from the start so I waited. Spain obliged and started early by scoring within the first 10 minutes (how good to see two games that started out positively).
I quickly layed AOAW for £8 and 0-1 (at a bargain lay price of around 6.5) for £5. At no time did it even cross my mind that this game would move into AO territory. This set me up with a nice double figure green in the middle. The best possible next step then happened when Croatia equalised just before the half-time whistle. But I could not see the game stopping there and 1-1 dropped to a fantastic 3.5 to lay. This meant that I could lay 1-1 to add profit on another goal going in and still keep profit of over £5 on 1-1 as well.
It looked very much like I was going to have to settle for the £5 profit (not the end of the world as I was already looking at that plus a little on the Turkey game) until the wonderful 3rd goal arrived making it 2-1 to Croatia in the 87th minute. A tidy little £15 plus profit to more than make up for the lack of profit on the 5pm games.