So now it gets serious as we start the round of 16 and the good news for us is that a team has to win to go through. The bad news is that it could now go to extra time or even penalties if 90 minutes isn’t enough to decide. I will make this round up brief as, to be honest, there is little to say about the market expectations in all 3 of the games being played tomorrow except that the markets still expect to be surprised.
The round of 16 draw has ended up rather lop-sided it must be said due to England and Spain not winning their groups as expected. As a result, Germany, Italy, Spain, France and England have all ended up on the same side of the draw.
Switzerland v Poland.
Right now on the day before the game, the odds are a total no go for ASP and it would take, at the very least, a goal in the first 5 minutes to make AO a possible lay. I have been known to start a game with a 0-0 lay, but it isn’t a good idea really without having a counter-balance to make getting back out of 0-0 easier if required. That counter-balance of course is an AO lay. You need a very certain expectation of goals to start with 0-0 on its own.
No real clue. Pre-tournament I would have said Switzerland to win but now I could see it going either way and that makes 0-0 in normal time a distinct possibility perhaps even likely. Just so I have something down, I’m going to say 0-1 to Poland.
Wales v Northern Ireland.
Surprisingly (for me anyway) this one isn’t looking likely as an ASP trade either but any goal in the first 30 minutes could bring AO into play. I wouldn’t be confident in trading after a goal in this game though and I expected AOHW (Wales) to be low enough to trade. It is far from that.
I have to fancy Wales to win this one based on their performance so far overall but we know the guys from Northern Ireland will be no pushover and, yawn, sorry to be a bore, but 1-0 once again would be my best guess as to the end result.
Croatia v Portugal.
Nothing doing again at this time. These odds could change but the exchange is going to be pretty cagey about most games now as the expected dominance from certain teams, pre-tournament, hasn’t materialised. It is very unlikely that I would find an 8pm Saturday trade a possibility anyway.
I would have been 100% certain that Croatia would win this game right up until Portugal played Hungary. Now I’m just pleased that England did not end up drawing Portugal in the round of 16 games. That said, I still rate Croatia and I think they could cause problems for Portugal and I would certainly love to see Croatia win. What little we can deduce from the market currently seems to be suggesting a 1-0 to Croatia result or possibly a normal time draw.
I am not convinced that even Ronaldo will be enough to bring Portugal through and I am going with the 1-0 to Croatia prediction that the market (currently) favours.