John Duncan

World Cup 2018, 26th June Games.

Well not much in the way of excitement yesterday. The highlight for me was seeing Ronaldo miss a penalty! On to the menu for today and my brief view on the games.

Australia v Peru seems straight forward enough. Australia could, theoretically, still go through with a win here and 3 goals to the good but, realistically, I don’t see that. I do see Peru playing for a bit of pride and beating Australia. It does just stack up on odds/filters as an ASP game although the AO odds are very much on the high side. I have no interest in this game personally and certainly have no desire to trade it. For starters, I think the market view of under 2.5 goals being more likely than over is marginal and I could see Peru winning 1-2 or maybe even 0-3 but Australia have proven themselves to be capable of keeping goals out even if they haven’t impressed in goal scoring terms. Equally it could be a damp squid and produce no goals at all so nothing here for me.

Denmark v France. Well you have to say that the French looked good against a very plucky Peru side in their last run out. The 1-0 to France scoreline didn’t do justice to the performance which was competent and assured. I was actually surprised at the end result and that is why I favour France to beat Denmark. That said, they are through anyway whatever happens in this game so the surprise might be that Denmark want to consolidate their tournament and qualify as group winners. The odds and filters say “underwhelming” in goal terms with under 2.5 being the serious odds-on favourite and 0-0 odds at 7.2 make that end result a distinct possibility. However, we haven’t seen a 0-0 yet and speculators might be drawn towards the possibility of an easy 0-0 lay. The AO odds alone disqualify this from even being under consideration as an ASP trader for me.

Iceland v Croatia. My opinion here is that Croatia have been playing with such flair and enthusiasm that I cannot see them easing up even for a game that is now largely irrelevant. They are pretty much unassailable as group winners but the feel good factor of taking maximum points will drive them to at least win by 1 or 2 in my opinion. Iceland can be intimidating I guess but Croatia will not find them so. I was so pleased to see Nigeria beat Iceland, not because of any adverse feelings I have towards the islanders, far from it, I love that they have such passion for the international stage. No my joy came from the possibility, the belief, Nigeria just might go on to get a good result out of their last group game against Argentina. Once again, tough to see an ASP game here with AO odds on the very high side. But anything other than a Croatia win will surprise me.

Nigeria v Argentina. Well, you already know my views on what I’d like to see happen in this game but I am totally at odds with the market, The view there is a low goal scoring affair but a definitive win for Argentina. Given what I have seen so far, it will only take one decision going against Argentina and their heads could drop and they could give up. I have a vision in my head of a stupid foul by an Argentinian defender giving away a penalty to the Africans. Perhaps I am being a little too optimistic. Let’s face it, the South Americans have a habit of escaping the pit, they are the complete contrast (in luck terms) of what normally happens to England. All the same, I am hoping for a shock and a win for Nigeria or even a draw here. A final result of 1-1 has been firmly planted in my sub-conscious as the minimum acceptable outcome.

ASP trader? Well, if you want to seriously speculate on the game, maybe. The filters and odds support an ASP trade except for a dangerously low AOAW (which of course, disqualifies it). I am leaving it alone, If I were to go for it, it would be a straight AOAW lay and a wait for 0-0 to drop or an instant 0-1 or 1-0 lay on an early goal.

World Cup 2018, June 25th

Time is the issue with me today so trading is out. There isn’t too much to get excited about fortunately so I don’t think I will be missing much.

Saudi Arabia v Egypt should prove to be a win for Egypt but the game is irrelevant as Russia and Uruguay are through no matter what in group A. When games are irrelevant trading is always dodgy because one of the teams may feel there’s little pint doing much beyond turning up. That said, if we were to look at strictly odds and filters, it would be a qualifier in the strictest sense.

In the same group we have the game to decide 1st and 2nd place for qualification between Uruguay and Russia. This game is of interest to me only because I am still unsure about Russia. They’ve had two easy games frankly and this game against Uruguay will be the first real test. That said, I favour the host side to win. It isn’t a trader as AO odds are rubbish.

Iran v Portugal should hold no surprises. Portugal could settle for a draw and would still go through but Iran have to win really. That said I doubt they have enough quality to beat the Portuguese so it is likely to be a win for Portugal. Odds and features confirm this as a pretty perfect ASP game if we were to focus on that alone but we can’t do that. For starters we have a guy playing who may well have his sites set on the Golden Boot award (Ronaldo) and Iran have proven very resilient and do give us a slight question mark. If we’d seen them score a few goals it would be easier to believe that they could cause an upset but, frankly, I think this game will go as expected and we should see one or two goals go Portugal’s way.

As to Spain v Morocco, that should be a relatively easy win for the Spanish. Not a trade based on filters and odds. Under 3.5 goals is too high to be a confident 3 goals max prediction and over 2.5 is heavily favoured against under. Everything points to an easy Spain win even though they need only draw to go through.

A general point to take into account when trading this type of competition and, particularly, final group games, is that good managers will rest key players in games that are seen as non-essential. Mathematically, it could be possible if Iran were to beat Portugal for Spain to fail to qualify on a drawn outcome but it seems highly unlikely and you have to assume that even a Spanish second team would beat Morocco.

If I had the time today, I would be tempted by the Iran v Portugal game but nothing else. Finally, Wow! is all I can about England yesterday. My hope for half a dozen goals wasn’t off the mark at all and how lovely it was to see them play without the normal fear factor that has historically dominated England games. Well done Gareth Southgate and the lads.

World Cup 2018, Today’s Games And Yesterday’s Results

England v Panama

Starting with the menu today we have, of course, what should be a win for England. To think in terms of them not beating Panama is simply not on. If we can’t win this one we shouldn’t be in the competition. The minor worry (if there is one at all) is that Belgium comfortably demonstrated that they are World class and showed us that we should have given Tunisia a good thumping and really should not have struggled. However, there is always psychology at play in big competitions and Belgium had 3 points under their belt before taking on Tunisia and absolute belief that they were going through. For England to be ready to give Belgium a seriously good game (which of course should be irrelevant qualification wise) they need a comfortable win over Panama. I can’t trade this game, I have to just enjoy it and pray for copious amounts of goal action (in the Panama goal area of course).

There are good pointers that explain why I will not trade it. The over 2.5 goals odds favour 3 or more. Any other home win suggests 4 goals for England to be a distinct possibility. We aren’t used to our side delivering a large number of goals but I just get the feeling they might well be up for it. Tunisia punished us with aggressive tackles and got away with murder. Hopefully, Panama will be less punishing on the shins. I actually think we will win 2-0 or maybe even 3-0 (with the constant possibility of a momentary lapse in our defence and a consolation goal for Panama) but I am quietly hoping for half a dozen England goals to set us up a treat for the later stages of the tournament.

Japan v Senegal: Most people were surprised when Senegal beat Poland in their opener. I wasn’t, that’s why I backed Senegal to win the competition before the first ball was kicked. Not because I believe for a moment that they will win the World Cup but simply because I believed (and still do) that they would qualify from their group and this would allow me to lay them as potential winners and make a nice profit whatever the outcome thereafter. They were the best value bet in the market (in terms of odds) to win. I could lay out of them now as the odds have dropped from the 200 I backed them at to 130 already. If they beat Japan today, as they should in my opinion, those odds should drop further.

Japan also beat Colombia, much to everyone’s surprise including me but I don’t think they are as interesting and as good as Senegal. The Africans are really up for this and a win against Japan takes them into the next stage. I believe they will consider this an easier test than the Colombia game. I am looking forward to the Senegal v Colombia game because both sides have flair and the Colombians should not have lost to Japan and they will be well aware of that and I think we will see them respond to that defeat today against Poland (I will get to that one shortly).

The market does not expect many goals and ASP filters are all go for trading except that the AOAW odds are far too high to get into this. Short of an early goal, later entry, trade into this, it is a non-starter for me. I have decided that I will not even look to trade this one at all.

Poland v Colombia could be a very interesting game. These two were expected to both win their openers and they both lost. That sets it up for a real war of contrition. As far as odds/filters go, under 2.5 goals is favoured and Colombia are slightly fancied to win. It looks more like an ASP trading game than the other two but the AOAW odds are still a bit on the high side for my taste. There is a slight (albeit understandable) contradiction in the market. It’s understandable because we have yet to see a 0-0 game but it is a contradiction because the market favourite outcome is a Colombia win but 1-1 is the most favoured scoreline result. The fact is that the market cannot read this game and guess what? neither can I.

A lot about this game says draw possibility to me in a way, so the 1-1 prediction (based on market odds) is of no surprise to me but I wouldn’t want to call it. We could easily be looking at the first 0-0 of the tournament or a 1-1, 2-2 result and, equally, given what both sides need to play for (continuation and reputation) I could just as easily see a high scoring win game. Something we need to take into account is that Poland are massively supported (as a neighbouring country to Russia they would be I guess) and that could impact upon the psychological war that will take place. As I stated, a war of contrition with both expected to have done better and a real need to now do so.

So hence the difficulty in reading it. My gut tells me that Colombia are a better side but Poland have proven many times over the years that they can play trench warfare better than anyone. Again, and most importantly, I have to conclude, no trades for me. This is a very important and key point for traders. YOU MUST have a plan and to have a plan you must have an expectation of how a game should go so that you know how to react to it. With this one, I just don’t know…

Yesterday

I made it quite clear that I thought the Belgium game was way too risky to trade and it proved to be just that. But it was a fun game to watch and this Belgium side not only look good but also look like potential competition winners. I am pleased that we only get to face them after we should have already qualified.

In the other two games I did dip my toe in the water and I have to confess I was a little lucky with the German game. Well, to be fair, I made a decision at the 1-1 stage that it was all or nothing so the luck aspect was that the goal did eventually come (very late) but to defend my cavalier attitude, I could only have lost £11 and change if it had not come and I was well in profit overall. The greater risk, financially was really with the mexico game but I didn’t feel exposed at all at any point in that game. Enough chit chat, here is the detail.

South Korea v Mexico

I layed AOAW for £6 at odds of 12.5 (the biggest risk of the game) and I then layed 0-0 for £2 at odds of 11 intending to maybe put a little more in if the odds came down to under 6 (they didn’t though). Mexico scored from a penalty at around 26 minutes and then I layed 0-1 for £5 at odds of 6. Shortly after the second half kicked of I backed AOHW for £4 at odds of 17. At the same time I topped up my 0-1 lay by another £4 at odds of 3.8. The game stayed at 0-1 until around 65 minutes in and then the Mexicans scored again. That gave me a nice little £12.35 profit.

Germany v Sweden

I guess like every one on the planet I expected Germany to come out with guns blazing and, even knowing that, I just felt that laying AOHW was a worthwhile risk given how tenacious Sweden can be in defence. My thoughts were simply that Germany would pound the Swedish goal, eventually break through and maybe get 2 or possibly 3. My first lay then, was for £7 on AOHW at odds of 6.8. I was quite pleasantly surprised when Sweden, not German, put the first goal in at around 32 minutes.

That called for another lay and I did 0-1 for £5 at odds of 9. I didn’t have to wait very long for Germany to equalise and then, of course, I layed 1-1 for £5 at odds of 5.7. At this stage I was exposed to a possible loss of £11.80 on 1-1 and, of course, a more substantive £30 potential loss on a 4 goal or more German win. I have to say that the idea at this stage of the game (7 minutes or so into the second half) ending with 4 goals to Germany seemed very remote. Sweden were playing to keep the Germans out with no real thought to score again. Had the game stayed at 1-1 (which looked increasingly likely as it went on) then Germany would have been in real trouble. In fact, almost certainly out of the contest.

But, of course, we are talking about Germany. With just under 2 minutes to go in added time (when I had already accepted my £11.80 loss) Germany popped in a very tasty goal from a foolishly conceded free kick and the game ended 2-1. As a result I took an unexpected £16.15 profit. The risk panned out and that ended another rewarding day at the World Cup finals.

World Cup 2018, 23rd June

Belgium v Tunisia is, on paper, a game that could produce a number of goals. The AO odds indicate a market that expects 4 goals or more to Belgium. Realistically though, we’ve only seen 4 plus in one game – Russia’s opening match. The nature of the World Cup is hard to define. We always expect national sides to give their absolute all and yet find ourselves frequently surprised by their (often) lack-lustre performances (Argentina, for example, against Croatia).

So Belgium will be feeling pretty confident against Tunisia but Tunisia hardly gave up against England and proved to be tougher opposition than expected. So why wouldn’t they give Belgium a good, hard run for their money? I feel that Belgium will win and, like England, with maybe a 2-1 or perhaps 2-0 victory. I wouldn’t be confident about an AO lay though because, there is no question if (and it is a big IF) they put it all together against Tunisia, there could easily be a goal rush. This is a watch rather than trade game for me. I think the market odds on over 2.5 goals (out of our filter range) are underestimating the goal potential.

South Korea v Mexico: The market odds are saying Mexico to win but with few goals. Under 2.5 is favoured and the AOAW is in the trading range along with 0-0. Are 0-0 or 4 plus goals reasonable possibilities? Well, the World Cup is nothing if not unpredictable. I saw a very useful Mexico side play Germany and although I don’t see 0-0 as an outcome, I would not be surprised at a comprehensive Mexico win. That said, South Korea were plucky against Sweden and not easy to break down.

The question then is how poor are the Germans this time around? How good are the Mexicans? And were Sweden deserving of their win against South Korea? For me the answers are that Germany were taken by surprise and will improve. Mexico are definitely good enough to overwhelm South Korea and Sweden are not good enough to contain the Germans. I think the market is correct with the South Korea v Mexico game and the result will be a Mexico win by 1 or two goals. I would trade this with greater emphasis on a 0-0 lay over an AOHW lay and take it from there. South Korea never looked remotely like goal scorers but they can defend.

Germany v Sweden: The market is saying look out for a German whiplash. The odds favour over 2.5 goals and under 3.5 goals is not a confident set of odds at 1.5. Those two filters alone take it out of ASP territory. Is it a trader for me though? With AOHW odds at around 7.6/7.8 it is not unattractive. I would need to see a good slide down on 0-0 odds to lay that but, all in all, I may be tempted. Definitely not an ASP game though as one of our most indicative filter (over 2.5 goals) heavily favours over.

World Cup 2018, 22nd June Games

I will not be trading today but here’s my view on the games from a trading perspective:

Brazil v Costa Rica – favourite odds, under 2.5 goals odds and the odds on AO disqualify this as an ASP game, however, were I actively trading today, I wouldn’t do this game anyway as I expect a backlash from Brazil having been held to a draw with The Swiss. The FIFA World Rankings have Switzerland 6th in the world currently, so the draw with Brazil was as much about their competence as it was about Brazil (ranked 2nd in the World) having an off day. Costa Rica are a different proposition and I could easily see several goals in this game. That said, this is the only game I would consider trading were I involved today and it would all be off the back of an AOHW lay. Not recommended for anyone other than a really seasoned trader.

Nigeria v Iceland – I have to favour Nigeria even after seeing Iceland’s plucky fight with Argentina but, on paper, there is little to choose between these two, albeit Iceland rank way higher than Nigeria in World Ranking terms. Truth is, I don’t really know how to read this game. Croatia beat Nigeria 2-0 but then they went on to beat Argentina 3-0 in one of the most enjoyable football matches I have seen in an age. So based on that alone, Nigeria probably have something about them. First game nerves always plays a part, so perhaps Croatia didn’t play as well against the African side because of an element of that. Last night’s game also puts Iceland’s result against Argentina into perspective. The South Americans were awful and so maybe Iceland weren’t quite as plucky as I thought. So, Nigeria to edge a win or, perhaps, a draw is what I expect here and that would, of course, give Argentina a way back in if Croatia beat Iceland in the last group game. As for ASP, the AO odds tell you this is a non-starter. The big message from me here, is this is unreadable.

Serbia v Switzerland – Serbia were efficient against Costa Rica but hardly exciting. I don’t think they stand much chance against the Swiss. However the Swiss are not great at scoring goals. They are grinders and that’s how they held Brazil. An early goal could, theoretically, open this up for a trade I guess but I wouldn’t expect that either. However, an International side does not get ranked 6th in the World for nothing. So that’s why the Swiss are clear game winners in my mind. The game odds tell us absolutely nothing except that it isn’t an ASP trader and the market isn’t expecting much at all.

So, not much going on today and a very good day for me to stay out of it. I will be back tomorrow at some point with further insights if all goes well.

World Cup Games – 21st June

Denmark v Australia didn’t really have any surprises in it. I wasn’t keen on the AO odds at the start and decided to wait for a goal. I didn’t have to wait long with Denmark scoring 7 minutes in. After the market settled it seemed safer to me to lay 1-0 instead of laying AOHW – I was concerned that the Danish might go on to score a few more and that would have made AOHW tricky to get out of. That said, even though the Australians brought the game back to 1-1 in the first half, it took a dodgy looking penalty decision to produce the second goal of the game.

But it pays not to dwell on what if too much. Job done at 1-1 and quite an easy profit.

France v Peru was quite a hard game to read and it didn’t help that I wasn’t able to give it my full concentration (never a good idea). This was pretty basic stuff really, lay AO, lay 0-0 for a small amount with a second small amount coming later. France scored at around 35 minutes and then I had to wait for the AOHW odds to go out far enough to make the back bet on it. Only a small amount profit-wise and, as often happens, I could have waited longer and kept more in the game. At 70 minutes the odds were out to 60 and, of course, ultimately it stayed 1-0 to the French.

Still, every time I glanced at the screen France were attacking so I didn’t feel like leaving an open liability on there.

Argentina V Croatia was a non-starter for me. It is half-time as I write this and short of taking a second half gamble on 0-0 there are o real opportunities here. So that’s if for today.

I am not aorund to trade tomorrow so, that’s it until at least Saturday.

World Cup 2018, 21st June

There really isn’t much to say about yesterday really,  all games ended 1-0/0-1 and I couldn’t get on either of the Portugal or Uruguay games because of having to deal with work matters and ended up only having the time to do the Spain game. Two easy profit opportunities missed but at least I got one in the bag.

I watched that last game all the way through and I have to say that Iran were really plucky and a little unlucky not to score (well, technically, they did but it was disallowed). From the ASP point of view it was a very simple game for me. Again, I should say it wasn’t a game based on the filters but I did it anyway mostly, to be honest, because it was the only one I could get on.

I layed AOAW prior to kick off for £11 with odds of 4.7. The 0-0 odds were too high for my taste at the start and I planned to lay that later when it dropped. As it transpired, I was back out of AO, just 25 minutes into the first half when the odds increased to around 9 and then left it right up until the second half kicked off to lay 0-0 for £11 at odds of 4.8.

I reasoned that the risk on it remaining 0-0 was very low and kept expecting Spain to start playing, besides, I would have easily been able to back out of 0-0 again later if the odds started to head towards evens, even if that meant taking a small hit. In the end, the goal came within 10 minutes of the second half kicking off and that secured a nice profit regardless of the outcome. The goal rush I half expected from Spain never materialised and I (and the market) was wrong on that count.

Let’s take a look at today’s games. Again, it’s going to be hard for me to trade today although I will look to try to get one game in again if possible. Perhaps the evening one again.

The Iran v Spain Betfair detail is at the bottom.

Denmark v Australia – AO odds are too high at the moment for my taste. Australia were surprisingly resilient before going down against France and Denmark (apart from their astounding goalkeeper) didn’t look that great in their opener and you have to believe that Peru would have won that game had they not missed that critical penalty and been a little luckier. On paper it is an ASP game except for those weighty AO odds. An early(ish) goal might bring it into play a little easier? That’s not a recommendation, just an observation. I’ve got to assume a Danish win here but who knows really…

With France v Peru the odds go the way of France but if Peru can lift themselves after their terrible luck against Denmark where, frankly, they were by far the better side, maybe the realisation that they need to beat France to keep their World Cup hopes alive might do the trick for them. I hope I get to see and trade this one, I think it could be an exciting game if Peru really go for it. The odds and filters are perfect for an ASP game with both 0-0 and AOHW showing now at around 11/12. In the end we should expect France to come through or at least hang on to a draw – 0-0 of course is the danger here but I just feel that goals will come with Peru doing their best to stay in the competition.

And then there’s Argentina v Croatia. All the filters stack up except for a high set of AO odds. I wouldn’t lay AO personally at anything over 17 but it is feasible with reduced stakes. More and more these days I prefer to take a chance on the lower AO odds games but it isn’t a great idea for a novice to try. Again, I would maybe look for an early goal prior to getting involved (not a recommendation, just an alternative approach).

Croatia look to have a reasonably good side and Argentina looked poor against Iceland apart from that inspired and brilliant Aguero goal. Frankly, I was hoping Iceland would beat them as they were really taking the game to the South Americans. Croatia would do more with the opportunities that Iceland had and I think Argentina will be aware of that and a draw isn’t enough for them. So it comes down to Lionel Messi. He wasn’t himself in the opener, maybe he will be today.

Croatia, of course, probably would go through with a draw and I just hope that doesn’t stifle the game and see them build a wall and stay behind it. But, we’ve seen Argentina respond before when their backs are against the wall and, because of that, I think they may be a different side today and win it.

 

 

World Cup 2018, 20th June

Portugal v Morocco looks like an out an out ASP trader based on the odds so I will be looking to have a go here but I can’t help thinking that, based on what we saw in the round one games, Portugal could take them apart. So any trading on this game must be commenced with the belief that it could get busy. That said, you never can tell with this competition and the 2.5 goals market is declaring under (I am not convinced). Morocco will be reeling from the late goal from Iran that deprived them of any points and they may create a few opportunities. My problem (in assessment) is how good (or bad) are Morocco the game against Iran told us nothing except that the Iranians can defend well when put under pressure. I will not be going crazy with this one, I am happy to admit a little nervousness and I would advise caution by all.

With Uruguay v Saudi Arabia it’s hard to see anything other than a win for the South Americans. They were hardly impressive against Egypt in game one but they did beat them. Saudi Arabia are, so far, the worst team I have seen in this contest so an easy win for Uruguay must be on the cards. The question then becomes “how many goals”. The 2.5 goals market is screaming under so if we believe that (and I am more inclined to believe it in this game over the Portugal one), it makes the 4.3 AOHW odds look very attractive. If I do this one, it will be a very slow and possibly late entry into 0-0 after a tickle on AOHW.

Once again the Iran v Spain game seems to be stacking up for ASP based on odds. This one looks to be more likely to produce goals according to the over 2.5 odds. The odds seem well balanced but here’s the thing; Portugal and Spain put 3 goals past each other. Now, is that because of poor defending by both teams or simply because there is such fierce competition between them that no-one could have stopped the flow of goals? Football often does not make sense and the markets at Betfair want it both ways. They make the Mediterranean’s both hot favourites in their games and yet don’t seem confident about goals. My view on the Spain game is clear. It is exactly the same as the Portugal game, I expect goals, I will not be surprised at over 4 to to the favourites and I am going to be cautious.

In fact, I am going to have to be ultra cautious today as I may need to multi-task through much of this. Other urgent matters cannot be postponed so if I miss some of the action it will be down to that. Early profit opportunities will be my real focus if possible.

 

 

 

World Cup 2018, Tuesday 19th June

In the end, I did not get involved yesterday. Had I been at home in the evening I would definitely have traded the England game but I went out and watched it in the local pub instead. The other two games were a) Belgium game – too risky and b) Sweden game – too dull to get involved.

Looking at today I see that Colombia v Japan stacks up pretty much on filters and odds and yet my gut is telling me that this could be an easy Colombia win. On paper, even with their indecisive and last minute qualification to the event, Colombia to me look too strong for a very average Japan. So I could easily see this being very one-sided. Of course, the World Cup is nothing if not unpredictable so we’re probably going to see a 0-0 or 1-0 game now. I don’t fancy it at the moment, of that I am certain.

Poland v Senegal also doesn’t do much for me so I don’t think I am going to be trading this either. However I do have a bet on Senegal winning the World Cup – yes, seriously, I do. I think they have a good chance of qualifying from the group and I can see them beating or at least taking a point from Poland. All I need Senegal to do is get past the group stage and I will then lay my bet on them winning. But trading the game, doesn’t stack up for me.

That leaves Russia v Egypt and this game could really come down to one thing or, more precisely, one man. Is Mohamed Salah fit enough to tear the Russian defence apart? A lot of people (myself included) feel that he could have saved the game for Egypt had he been played against Uruguay and it bothers me that he wasn’t played. Why would you keep your best player out of the critical opening game unless you were concerned about his fitness?

It doesn’t matter now, they need Saleh to have any hope of still qualifying and they must beat Russia to do it, they can’t realistically believe a draw will be enough. Russia, in turn, will be feeling very confident about their 5-0 opener (albeit it was against dreadful opposition) but they could easily sit back and defend hoping for a draw.

The AO odds make this hard to trade. And a first goal to Egypt or any prolonged 0-0 period will make it even harder to trade. Only a reasonably early Russian goal makes this a trader in my opinion – and that is unlikely I think.

So, all in all, it doesn’t look like a good day for ASP trades (for me). That said, it is rare that the first games in the biggest football contest on the planet ever give us much in the way of trading opportunities. We should be much better placed to trade in round 2 in general.

18th June World Cup 2018, Quick Summary

Sweden V South Korea, odds scream 0-0, odds for AO too high. No trading opportunity here unless an early goal opens one up. I don’t see this ending 0-0 but that doesn’t help the trading scenario any.

Belgium v Panama, odds suggest a Belgium walk-over. We know that never happens however but I see this as too much of a risk really, especially as a 0-0 lay to balance things out is off the menu with odds at around 20.

Tunisia v England. Well I guess this is the one that most people in the UK have been eagerly awaiting. The odds actually look quite good to me in the CS market but this doesn’t stack up on filters. I have no intention of getting involved with trading this for one simple reason; I am going to be in the pub watching the game and soaking up a bit of atmosphere along with possibly a little beer.

Maybe the time has come for me to force myself to try some Betfair trading on my mobile?

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