Well not much in the way of excitement yesterday. The highlight for me was seeing Ronaldo miss a penalty! On to the menu for today and my brief view on the games.
Australia v Peru seems straight forward enough. Australia could, theoretically, still go through with a win here and 3 goals to the good but, realistically, I don’t see that. I do see Peru playing for a bit of pride and beating Australia. It does just stack up on odds/filters as an ASP game although the AO odds are very much on the high side. I have no interest in this game personally and certainly have no desire to trade it. For starters, I think the market view of under 2.5 goals being more likely than over is marginal and I could see Peru winning 1-2 or maybe even 0-3 but Australia have proven themselves to be capable of keeping goals out even if they haven’t impressed in goal scoring terms. Equally it could be a damp squid and produce no goals at all so nothing here for me.
Denmark v France. Well you have to say that the French looked good against a very plucky Peru side in their last run out. The 1-0 to France scoreline didn’t do justice to the performance which was competent and assured. I was actually surprised at the end result and that is why I favour France to beat Denmark. That said, they are through anyway whatever happens in this game so the surprise might be that Denmark want to consolidate their tournament and qualify as group winners. The odds and filters say “underwhelming” in goal terms with under 2.5 being the serious odds-on favourite and 0-0 odds at 7.2 make that end result a distinct possibility. However, we haven’t seen a 0-0 yet and speculators might be drawn towards the possibility of an easy 0-0 lay. The AO odds alone disqualify this from even being under consideration as an ASP trader for me.
Iceland v Croatia. My opinion here is that Croatia have been playing with such flair and enthusiasm that I cannot see them easing up even for a game that is now largely irrelevant. They are pretty much unassailable as group winners but the feel good factor of taking maximum points will drive them to at least win by 1 or 2 in my opinion. Iceland can be intimidating I guess but Croatia will not find them so. I was so pleased to see Nigeria beat Iceland, not because of any adverse feelings I have towards the islanders, far from it, I love that they have such passion for the international stage. No my joy came from the possibility, the belief, Nigeria just might go on to get a good result out of their last group game against Argentina. Once again, tough to see an ASP game here with AO odds on the very high side. But anything other than a Croatia win will surprise me.
Nigeria v Argentina. Well, you already know my views on what I’d like to see happen in this game but I am totally at odds with the market, The view there is a low goal scoring affair but a definitive win for Argentina. Given what I have seen so far, it will only take one decision going against Argentina and their heads could drop and they could give up. I have a vision in my head of a stupid foul by an Argentinian defender giving away a penalty to the Africans. Perhaps I am being a little too optimistic. Let’s face it, the South Americans have a habit of escaping the pit, they are the complete contrast (in luck terms) of what normally happens to England. All the same, I am hoping for a shock and a win for Nigeria or even a draw here. A final result of 1-1 has been firmly planted in my sub-conscious as the minimum acceptable outcome.
ASP trader? Well, if you want to seriously speculate on the game, maybe. The filters and odds support an ASP trade except for a dangerously low AOAW (which of course, disqualifies it). I am leaving it alone, If I were to go for it, it would be a straight AOAW lay and a wait for 0-0 to drop or an instant 0-1 or 1-0 lay on an early goal.