John Duncan

Germany v Mexico, World Cup 2018

New ASP members must treat this post with caution. This game WAS not an ASP game based on filters and I offer this post purely for information purposes to show what can be done with ASP.

OK, I said I wasn’t going to do it but I couldn’t help myself. Germany v Mexico had AOHW odds that really should tell anyone that, as an ASP trader, it was a little risky but then, when you really look at Mexico’s form coming into the tournament, it seemed quite possible that they would hold the Germans back some. And that is exactly what happened. And not only that but they got the first and only goal in the game!

This doesn’t need any more explanation than the following really. I layed AOHW at odds of 6.8 for £11 before kick off and then cashed out when the AOHW odds hit 21 shortly after Mexico’s gola. There’s no doubt that if you are confident that you can trade through a high and/or rapid fire scoring game, if needs be, then the lower AO odds can lead to some good profits. But this is a strategy for seasoned ASP’ers only.

World Cup 2018, Sunday 17th June

I can’t trade the Germany v Mexico game of the Brazil v Switzerland game. If either Germany or Brazil happen to get a reasonably early goal, then the AO odds are going to drop too dramatically to be able to comfortably trade this one. I am up for the challenge of course but I’d rather sit back and simply enjoy watching the games.

Costa Rica v Serbia hasn’t produced the opportunity to trade it yet (30 minutes in). I might be tempted if there is a goal soon and the odds allow for a trade.

 

World Cup 2018

I’m not around Saturday to do any World Cup games but if I were, I’d be a little tempted by the Argentina V Iceland game. 1-1 or 2-1 to Argentina is my feeling.

That’s it for now.

Egypt v Uruguay, World Cup 2018

New ASP members must treat this post with caution. This game WAS not an ASP game based on filters and I offer this post purely for information purposes to show what can be done with ASP.

This game came with a little bit of luck (well, we all deserve some) and a bit of a silly move on my part.

First the luck. This could so easily have been a 0-0 final result and I totally gambled on it not being so. Given that Uruguay hadn’t won their opening game in 7 World Cups up to this point, it really was a big gamble. OK, it is the case that I wasn’t going to lose anything painful if it had stayed 0-0 but, nevertheless it isn’t a good idea to leave it and just hope for the best.

The silly move was that I came out of AOAW way too early. I was just so taken by the rapid rise in the AOAW odds that I wanted to give myself an easy time of the game. Let me explain after sharing the end result of the trades:

So, to quickly explain the image; I layed AOAW for £5 at odds of 11. I then decided to leave 0-0 until it really tumbled. At first I put on a 0-0 lay in waiting at odds of 5 for £6. Shortly after I was stunned to see that AOAW had already hit odds of 27 – this within 15 minutes of kick off! So I foolishly became distracted with that and backed AOAW to kill off the £50 liability I had there.

I could of course have just left it there, walked away and taken a satisfyingly easy (albeit small) profit. After all, a £2.70 profit for doing nothing on a £5 lay bet isn’t so bad. But no, that wouldn’t have done at all so hence the move to 0-0 for some profit potential. It was clear that the goal wasn’t going to come soon if at all so I dropped the 0-0 odds asked for progressively until it was half-time and I still had no 0-0 lay on.

Come the second half, I set 0-0 for a £6 lay at 3.2. I just wanted to take my profit level to £8. The game went on and on and on and the goal didn’t come until 87 minutes into the game. Up until that point I was going to lose £10.40 on a 0-0 result. As I stated before, hardly a disastrous amount to lose but it would have taken back my profit from the Russia game yesterday.

Now if the image above doesn’t make total sense to you, fear not, the reason is that I also used cash-out prior to getting my 0-0 lay taken to increase my green profit across the board from (don’t get too excited) around £2.65 after commission to £2.70. I know, silly really, but a little bit more for clicking a button never hurt anyone.

Morocco v Iran could be a fun game to watch if the North Africans are up for it but the odds for the AOHW lay are just far too high. I have been known on occasions to get into a game after a goal but I’m not even going to look for that with this one.

As to Portugal v Spain, that isn’t one for me either.

Russia v Saudi Arabia, World Cup 2018

New ASP members must treat this post with caution. This game WAS not an ASP game based on filters and I offer this post purely for information purposes to show what can be done with ASP.

I don’t do too many ASP trades these days because my time is very heavily consumed by other things so I choose games first and foremost that are likely to be a little more challenging to read and, if possible, a wee bit exciting. Of course, that is nearly impossible to achieve in most cases.

With an international competition like the World Cup you have to rely, to a very large extent, on your read of the game, what’s happening within the game is critical so it’s good to watch it if you can or, at the very least use a good scanner system to monitor action in it – (I use this one >> IN PLAY SCANNER). And, of course, you need to rely on your confidence and skill.

My expectation of the Russia v Saudi Arabia game was that Russia would comfortably win but only with a goal or two. The media and pundits were harping on about these two teams being the lowest rated in the competition so to hear them speak you would have assumed that this game was likely going to head for 0-0. That was never my personal view fortunately and I planned accordingly.

So, let’s get to the outcome of the trades and then the explanation.

Russia were very strong favourites so the AOHW odds were easy to lay into at 10. I layed for a small £5 (1) and then I layed 0-0 at odds of 10.50 for £3 (2). Now, I don’t often get straight in like this on 0-0 ( I prefer to wait until the odds have dropped some in game) but we’re talking opening game of the World Cup, host side playing and you have to expect the quick opening goal. I would not be so conceited as to say who I expected it from, in my mind it could just as easily be the Saudi’s trying to shock the hosts into submission as it could be the hosts wanting to get the crowd buzzing for them.

As it transpired, there was no goal until 12 minutes in when the Russians went 1-0 up. That was a little disappointing really as I would liked to have gone in a little more on 0-0.  But on the other hand, 0-0 liability gone…

In my mind now, was the very distinct possibility that, as these were poor teams (apparently – although Russia didn’t look that poor to me), we could go into a lull and, indeed we did for a good 30 minutes.

I have so often seen this in international matches. One team scores and then sits back and relaxes a little too much.

I wasn’t surprised though when a second goal went in to Russia just before half-time. Saudi Arabia were terrible. They just kept giving the ball away and, frankly, it looked like Russia could have scored 4 or 5 goals before half-time. I had decided to lay 2-0 pretty much as soon as the second went in but, it was nearly half-time so I was definitely going to wait until the second half before deciding exactly when to lay it.

The second half commenced and I thought I would watch for a while before the 2-0 lay, Not too long though. I layed at around 11 or 12 minutes into the second half. Now, if you are going to do these correct score lays in game you need them to have an impact, so I layed this one for £10 (3). For me a liability on AOHW at around the £20 to £30 mark is not going to phase me too much if I have it wrong, likewise, as the odds on the 2-0 lay were only 3.65 (3) when I took action, a liability of around £18 and pennies (that increased to nearly £23 of course when I backed AOHW a little later (4)) I wasn’t going to be too upset if I somehow left it there. Not my intention of course.

I didn’t have to wait very long after backing away the liability on AOHW before goal three came in. In fact I was treated to goal 3 within 3 to 4 minutes of killing the AOHW liability. After that, it was feet up, glass of beer and watching CASH-OUT until it went past £8 (5). Using cash-out is, of course, the lazy way to put it all to bed but I do so enjoy using it. There was no cash-out facility you know when I first launched ASP back in 2014 (or was it late 2013).

Job done, nice easy £8 profit from what was originally £8 starting lays. Remember that, if possible, any lay after the original AO and 0-0 lays, should reduce your maximum possible loss, never increase it

After these blogs historically, I always get emails about why I do not stake higher.  So I will answer them in advance. I a) do not want to frighten anybody away by presenting ASP as a large bank only system because it isn’t. And b) I do this for fun so I don’t want to be feeling stressed out over the possibility of losing more than I need to just because I decide to add a little new content for you guys.

Looking at the menu for today, 15th June, I think Uruguay should beat Egypt but I don’t expect more than a couple of goals. Maybe 0-1, 0-2 or even 1-2. I may have a dabble but I am not going to jump in early on 0-0.

Morocco v Iran should be a relatively easy win for the North Africans but the odds on AOHW make this game nearly impossible to trade unless I wait for a goal…

Spain v Portugal has 0-0 draw written all over it – don’t like this as a trader at all.

Enjoy the World Cup …

The Semi-Finals

Current odds (Portugal v Wales):

Not surprisingly, the odds currently do not lend themselves to an ASP game. 1-0 to Portugal appears to be the market view. Only an early goal will open this up for trading.

General:

Clearly, we all want to see Wales win I’m guessing and there is no reason to think that the task is beyond them. You simply cannot underestimate the fantastic result they had against Belgium. Portugal finally killed the Icelandic dream but can we compare that feat with Wales beating the world’s second best team (according to FIFA)? No, I don’t think we can.

The biggest concern is that Wales will not have Aaron Ramsey and Ben Davies to call on because of their bans. Ramsey particularly will be badly missed as he has been an absolute dynamo for them. Portugal could be without Pepe which would compensate slightly as he has been absolutely brilliant in defence.

Personally, I could do with at least one game to trade in the Euros as I haven’t traded now since the Wales v Belgium game back on 1st July (quarter finals) but I can’t see this one or the other semi-final game being it. I am going with my heart here and Wales making it to the final. That would really put the icing on the cake for them. It will not be easy though as Portugal are all too often party poopers. Still, we could hope that Ronaldo has a really bad day and no-one else steps in to fill the void.

Current odds (Germany v France):

The market is predicting an even tighter game here than the Portugal v Wales game with 1-1 seen as the most likely result. Again, ASP seems unlikely unless an early goal opens it up.

General:

I disagree with the market and even though (Iceland game aside) they haven’t been scoring until late in the games,  I have been impressed with France. I think the methodical Germans will be hard work but they are without their best (current form) striker with Gomez injured and Thomas Muller just doesn’t seem tos core in the big tournament games.

My prediction is 2-0 to France. Maybe 2-1 if Germany catch them on the break. Without Gomex though, where will German goals come from?

I want France to win and I think they will but Germany are always a nightmare to beat. If France play the open and attacking game they apparently demonstrated against Iceland, Germany could find holes and they may just finally find someone capable of putting it in the net.

There isn’t much more I can say now as the Euros come to an end. I will not be around for the final on 10th July as I will be on a plane heading for Malaysia. I hope you have enjoyed the Euros and I also hope that the little insights I have given, especially during the group stages were useful for you. Enjoy your ASP trading!

Wales V Belgium

Brief Note On Poland V Portugal

Never a game to trade, sad that Poland had to go out on penalties but then that is so typical of the luck Portugal tend to get. They appear to be the exact opposite of England. if there is luck to be had, they find it. Whereas we don’t ever seem to get any.

Current odds (Wales V Belgium):

This ought to be a trader given the reasonable AOAW odds and, by all accounts, it looks like a near optimum game (given the usual warnings about lack of head to head data etc). The market favours a 0-1 or 0-2 result to Belgium with the possibility of  a draw in normal time.

General:

I would love to see Wales win this one but I have to go with my head rather than my heart and Belgium have steadily improved and are looking like a team that is ranked 2nd in the World now. I think that 0-2 to Belgium sounds about right unless a little bit of Gareth Bale magic can produce one for Wales.

Wales have shown such spirit that you can never discount them completely and more than anything else, I am simply looking forward to seeing the game.

Poland V Portugal

A Quick Word About England and Monday

There’s nothing I can add to the England debate – we just do not seem to be able to raise our game for the big match. There are many theories as to why, but I am very much of the belief that we have just been so starved of success at international football that we really have forgotten how to be winners.

As to trading on Monday, I didn’t do any. Like many, I simply sat, hung my head in shame and felt my heart sink as I watched England embarrass themselves against an island nation of 300,000 people. Well done Iceland but forgive me for not really putting my heart into congratulating you as I should. It is a bit like the feeling you have when it’s your birthday but you’re attending the funeral of a close friend.

As to Italy and Spain, it was always going to be a hard one to call but italy certainly wanted it more on the day.

Poland v Portugal

Current odds:

The market isn’t offering any signs of an ASP trade today, ahead of the game and I can’t see that changing before kick-off. I would like to see Poland win but Portugal are one of those national sides that seem to be able to play together and play well when it counts.

General:

I would like to see Poland win but Portugal are one of those national sides that seem to be able to play together and play well when it counts. So I have a feeling that Portugal will win but it will not be an easy win for them. However, I am going with 2-o to Portugal. I think they will soak up the pressure and then take charge.

Valuable Email Question And My Reply

The Email:

Hi,

Sorry for bothering you again, but I would like to ask your opinion about the Euro matches so far.. Because I find it difficult to trade these matches somehow, although I had been profitable with ASP before..

For example, yesterday on the France and Hungary games (I traded these only) I made a small loss. Because I wanted to get out on AU in the France game when  it  went to 2-1 and quite early. And in the Hungary game even at 0-1 HT the odds of AU (AO) were still very low to get out. Of course I layed 0-1 but it stayed like that for long. In the second half I managed to lower the AU (AO) liability, but I didn’t expect to  have 3 more goals that late and fast in the second half.

I might be wrong and that’s why I am writing you. I don’t know why these games seem more difficult somehow.

Cheers,

E**er

My Reply:

Hi E**er

First off, generally speaking, these aren’t the type of games you would choose to trade ASP with simply because you cannot assess form in the normal sense because these guys don’t play each very often at all. Therefore they are always going to have the potential to be difficult.

I am blogging trades on the Euros when I do them because they often contain good training material and I am blogging the contest so closely so that you can can choose to simply use the whole thing for training rather than actually for trading.

I did a trading blog on the France game and you can see what I did there. Obviously, what I did isn’t what you did and the difference is this point about EXPECTATION. I wrote up on my expectations on the game before I traded the game and I then traded it according to my expectations.

I didn’t trade Hungary v Belgium but I have done a blog on that anyway explaining how I would have traded it so that should help with that game for you.

I hope you don’t mind, but I think your email is of great value to people so I am going to copy it and my reply as another blog (I will keep your name out of it of course).

John

Further Points Not Emailed:

Trading is something that you should only carry out when you feel confident to do so and certainly only within your range of acceptable loss thinking or, comfort zone. One thing I always try to put across, (and the primary reason why, when I trade for demonstration purposes that I always keep my stakes low), is that if the loss (the liability) in the end will not hurt you, then you have little to fear and it is a perfectly good thing to aim for small but multiple little wins. You gain profit by winning consistently and regularly – the only losers are those that quit on it before they have mastered that critical point.

In time, when you have mastered trading ASP style, the profit will come simply because you are doing everything right 90% of the time and you are doing enough of it. You don’t have to get it right 100% of the time (I don’t, no-one does). The starting point with everything is EXPECTATION and that is expectation game by game of your anticipated outcome and expectation overall of what is a realistic outcome. You can’t expect, for example, to lay for £5 and win £100.

You can expect, however, to select the right games and win £3 to £4 per game, eventually growing to £6 or £7 and then £10 or £11 and so on. The most important part of winning is knowing how to lose and keeping those losses down to a minimum.

I will always try, in these blogs, to guide you towards the right way of doing it. I am not 100% perfect every time myself but I will be right most of the time simply because of the experience I have built up.

I thank that customer for his email and I hope that it serves to educate us all some.

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