Correct Score Trading: How to make consistent profits from trading football matches on the Betfair Exchange.
Correct score trading is an exciting way to trade football on betting exchanges. Before you fire up Betfair though, have a read of our complete guide to the correct score markets.
Unlike other betting methods that rely on predicting the outcome of a match or how many goals there will be, correct score trading allows you to lock in your profit as the game progresses. You don't even need to be right about the exact final score!
In this post we will discover some of the ways you can trade the Correct Score market on Betfair. You're going to discover how you can make consistent, low-risk profits from a complex market that has 19 possible outcomes!
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a beginner, we’ll guide you through the essential steps to maximise your profit.
How to Read the Correct Score Market
At first glance, the Correct Score market on Betfair can look quite daunting. But, just like any other trading market, it is quite simple and straightforward to understand.
Below is an example of the Betfair Correct Score market for the game between Manchester City and Liverpool.
You can see that there are 16 possible scorelines available from 0-0 through to 3-3. The odds highlighted in blue are the back odds whereas the odds in pink are the lay odds i.e. you are betting on that score not to happen.
There are three further options available; Any Other Home Win, Any Other Away Win and Any Other Draw. These cover the possible outcomes should at least one of the teams score 4 or more goals for example 4-1, 2-5 or even a high scoring 5-5 draw!
If you were confident that Man City would win the match, instead of backing them in the Match Odds market you could back various scores. For example, 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 giving yourself a better return for your stake as the odds are much higher.
However if Liverpool were to score just one goal, you would lose your entire stake!
A football trading strategy such as Assured Soccer Profits (ASP) makes the Correct Score market much lower risk and allows you to grow your bank safely irrespective of which team scores!
Assured Soccer Profits: The Original Correct Score Trading System
Laying the Correct Score
Rather than backing a particular outcome to happen, a popular strategy when trading football is to lay it instead. This means that you are betting against it happening, for example you could lay a particular scoreline.
The average number of football matches that finish 0-0 is slightly over 8%. This means that almost 92% of matches have at least one goal scored during 90 minutes. That's a massive number!
So why not just place a £10 lay bet on the match not to finish 0-0? That would be easy money, wouldn't it?
Eureka!!! Have we found the golden betting system that everyone is looking for?!
Of course not. If it was that simple then everyone would do it and every workplace would be empty on a Monday morning. Let's look a bit more into this to find out why this does not work.
If you were to lay 0-0 in the match between Manchester City and Liverpool (above) then you would win your bet as soon as a goal is scored, giving you a profit of £10 (less commission).
However, when placing a lay bet of £10 at odds of 19.50 you are creating a liability of £185.00 which means that you would lose this amount should the game finish 0-0.
But Manchester City and Liverpool don't have 0-0s, do they?
Unfortunately, all teams have 0-0s now and again. Even Bayern Munich and Barcelona!
If you lost £185.00 on this match, imagine how many winners you would need just to get back to where you started. Ouch!
This is why it is sensible to use a proven football trading strategy like the Assured Soccer Profits system which was launched back in 2011 and is still making consistent low-risk profits today.
Dutching Correct Scores
A popular football trading strategy used on the Correct Score market is the Dutching system. This involves placing bets on multiple scorelines in order to increase your chances of making a profit.
You might think that Man City would beat Liverpool 2-1 but you're not completely sure. Instead of backing this single score you could split your stake and cover similar scorelines for example 2-1, 2-0 and 3-1 giving you more of a chance of securing a profit.
Primarily there are two different types of Dutching bets;
Equal Stakes Dutching
As the name suggests this involves placing the same stake on each bet for example:
- Bet 1 £10.00 on the 2-1 score at odds of 9.80
- Bet 2 £10.00 on the 2-0 core at odds of 10.50
- Bet 3 £10.00 on the 3-1 score at odds of 14.50
Your total stake for this bet would be £30.00.
- If the final score is 2-1 then your profit will be £78.00 (£98.00 less £20 for the loss on the other two scores)
- If the final score is 2-0 then your profit will be £85.00 (£105.00 less £20 for the loss on the other two scores)
- If the final score is 3-1 then your profit will be £125.00 (£145.00 less £20 fir the loss on the other two scores)
Any other final score would result in a loss of £30.00.
Equal Profit Dutching
This method will return equal profits for any of the outcomes but requires a bit of tricky maths to work out the stakes:
- Bet 1 £11.50 on the 2-1 score at odds of 9.80
- Bet 2 £10.73 on the 2-0 score at odds of 10.50
- Bet 3 £7.77 on the 3-1 score at odds of 14.50
Your total stake for this bet would still be £30.00 but in this instance your profit would be £82.70 should the game finish with one of your selected score lines. Any other final score would result in a loss of £30.00.
A Dutching calculator makes life a lot easier. There's a free one at Goal Profits that you can use - click here.
Correct Score Trading
We have looked above at two possible methods for trading the Correct Score market on Betfair. The flexibility of this market provides numerous opportunities to effectively manage your liabilities and secure consistent profits.
On a busy Saturday afternoon, you are faced with hundreds of fixtures to study. There are a plenty of ways to find good matches to trade whether it be recent form, expected goals (xG) or head-to-head results.
If you're doing it all manually though, it can be hard work!
Once you have found your shortlisted matches you then need to decide on the scorelines that you are going to trade:
- Are you backing or laying a selection of scores?
- How much do you need to stake?
- When do you enter the trade?
- When do you exit the trade?
The possibilities are endless.
The good news is that with just a few clicks, our ASP Qualifying Tool will show you the matches worth trading and you'll have a clear plan to follow.
Just think how much time you will save by having all the hard work done for you!
Assured Soccer Profits: The Original Correct Score Trading System
Scalping the Correct Score Market
A popular football trading strategy is scalping the Correct Score market in-play. You will either love it or hate it, there is no in between with scalping. It is not for everyone; you need nerves of steel and a large trading bank.
You will not be making big profits in relation to your stake when you use a correct score trading method such as scalping. When done correctly you will be looking at another low-risk strategy that will return small profits.
Small profits over an extended period add up and will make significant gains to your trading bank.
When scalping the Correct Score market on Betfair in-play, you need to place two opposing bets against each other and then make profit from the gap between these trades.
One of the most simple examples is scalping the 0-0 scoreline.
Let's look at an example in the match between West Ham and Liverpool.
You can see below a back bet of £100 which would be placed before kick-off. You can also see a lay bet at a lower price, but with a bigger stake. The difference between these two is the potential profit.
Once the match kicks off, you'll notice that the 0-0 price will fall.
The falling price as the clock ticks down is known as 'time decay' and it allows you to trade out for a profit with - quite literally - nothing happening in the match!
Once the price of the 0-0 scoreline has lowered to a lay price of 18.00, the lay bet will be matched and your profit will be locked in as shown below:
Warning! This is not for the feint hearted, as the stake you initially put in is at risk immediately. If a goal goes in before you have placed your lay bet you will lose all your stake!
Yes, you will only be in the trade for a few minutes but there could easily be a goal in that time.
Pre-match analysis is extremely important with this strategy. Look at trading games in low scoring leagues or with teams that don’t score too many goals.
Other examples of scalping the Correct Score market include:
- Back 2-0 to a strong favourite and then lay them in-play
- When the favourite is 1-0 down back 1-1 and then lay it
- When the favourite is 1-0 down back Under 2.5 goals and then lay it
- Back a strong favourite just before half time (if the score is still a draw) then lay them during the half time interval
- Back a home favourite to win 2-1 and then lay that score after the first goal
Correct Score Trading Analysis
Trading the Correct Score market on Betfair is exciting and profitable. However, like any football trading system, it is important that you have a clear strategy in place based on your pre-match analysis.
Your research ahead of kick-off could involve recent form of both teams, head-to-head results, league positions, do either team keep plenty of clean sheets or perhaps score lots of goals.
By analysing this information, you identify trends and patterns that can help you make informed decisions.
For example, if you notice that a team consistently performs well in the second half, you may choose to trade on the Correct Score market from half-time, predicting a higher-scoring second half.
Alternatively, if you see that a team has a strong defence and consistently concedes few goals, you may choose to trade lower scorelines for example 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1.
It's important to remember that not every trade will be successful.
Losses are an inevitable part of the trading process but a low-risk correct score trading system such as Assured Soccer Profits will help you keep your losses to a minimum and help you grow your bank safely.
Psychology and Correct Score Trading
Correct Score trading is not only about predicting the outcome of a match but also about managing your emotions and making rational decisions. The role of psychology in correct score trading cannot be overstated
When trading the Correct Score market, it's essential to remain level-headed and make decisions based on logic and strategy. Fear, greed, and panic can all lead to impulsive and potentially costly decisions.
Understanding your own psychology and emotional triggers is crucial. For example, you can't afford to panic when a trade is going against you. Stay calm, follow your strategy and stick to your trading plan.
Keeping a record of your trades will help you identify good and bad elements of your trading. You can easily review your trades and identify areas for improvement, whereas without a results sheet you won't have a clue what's working or not.
It's essential to remember that correct score trading is a long-term process. Don't let short-term losses or gains impact your emotions. By having a disciplined and steady approach, you will increase your chances of success.
The Correct Score market on Betfair is complex but it can be very rewarding for those who approach it with the right mindset.
The key to success is to remain patient, disciplined, manage your risk and stay focused on your long-term goals. By continuously refining your strategy over time, you can become a profitable and successful correct score trader on Betfair.
A proven low-risk correct score trading strategy such as Assured Soccer Profits will dramatically increase your chances of success and help you to achieve long-term bank growth.
The best time to start was in 2011 when ASP first launched, the next best time is today!