I decided to do all 4 games in the one blog as, once again, we are seeing markets at the moment that aren’t fully formed with some of them.
Hungary v Portugal.
Correct score market not yet fully formed but likely to be low odds on AOAW (Portugal). 0-1 and 0-2 shaping up to be market favourites. ASP trading on this match could be possible but Portugal’s poor form might, in the end, keep AO high.
Portugal could go out with a draw and certainly would if Hungary were to beat them so Portugal must win, plain and simple. Sadly, even with an under-performing Ronaldo, they are more than capable of doing so and the win will take them through. I suspect another very close, low scoring event that will end 0-1.
I may trade this one as I expect at least a goal, although I can see it coming late in the game. All will depend on odds though. I’d need to see 12 as a maximum on AOAW.
It is interesting to note that any one of 3 teams could still win this group (Austria can’t, even with a win now) and any of the 3 could also end up second. It is also worth noting that, if Portugal were to draw with Hungary, then, depending on goal difference they could be England’s opponents in the round of sixteen. Historically, it could be argued that Portugal have become a bit of a bogey team to England so I hope that isn’t the case.
Iceland v Austria.
Doesn’t look likely as an ASP trade and 0-1 to Austria at the moment is the market favoured end result.
Iceland could actually win the group IF they beat Austria and the Hungary v Portugal game is a draw or a win to Portugal but iceland would need to score 2 or 3 goals to do it. The more likely outcome if Iceland won is that they would come second and be England’s opponents in the next round. I would rather draw Iceland than Portugal for sure.
Austria have yet to show what they have been capable of on past results so I predict a win for them and agree with the current market prediction of 1-0.
That result would give them 2nd place if Portugal lost to Hungary or drew with Hungary and a probable 3rd place with a chance of qualifying as one of the 4 best 3rd placed teams if Portugal were to beat Hungary.
Italy v Republic Of Ireland.
Again, market not really formed and so too soon to conclude. In reality though, there is little chance of Italy not being hot favourites and I suspect AO odds would be low enough to trade this one using ASP.
3-0 to Italy would be my prediction.
They will not find the Irish guys a pushover but there isn’t enough talent in the Ireland team to cause Italy any problems and the Irish don’t score too many. Having said that I cannot help but recall their 2-2 draw against Slovakia in March (albeit in a friendly) so they can clearly do what England failed to do yesterday.
Bottom line is that, barring a miracle, Ireland are out of this and they will need to beat Italy to have any chance of surviving into the next round. Even with an unlikely win against Italy it could only be a 3rd place qualification for the Republic of Ireland at best.
Sweden v Belgium
The still to be fully formed market is leaning towards Belgium and that is no surprise as Belgium showed a little of what they are capable of against the Republic of Ireland last time out. AO odds could be good enough to trade ASP and the market is currently suggesting a 0-1 win to Belgium as favourite.
The result against Italy could be seen as a case of big tournament jitters for Belgium and I certainly haven’t written them off yet.
Sweden need to win to get a shot at 2nd place in the group. A draw in this game could still see Belgium through in 2nd place.
I think a 0-2 end result in Belgium’s favour is on the cards.