Update since my blog Euro 2016 – where to begin.
Romania have been beaten since the last World Cup – they lost 3-4 to the Ukraine, 29th May – that information somehow escaped my attention when I wrote the first piece. Also noteworthy is that they hammered Georgia 5-1 on 3rd June (their most recent game).
Moving to tonight’s game:
The Betfair prices and the stats with this game are very much against this being an ASP trading opportunity so I need to be clear that any ASP style trade on this game should be considered a higher than acceptable risk. I would absolutely advise that you would only use ASP on this game if you were a very able and confident trader and if you could afford to take a hit if you’re wrong.
I am not yet 100% decided as to whether I do or I don’t trade it and if I do, whether I use ASP or not. I may decide to just relax with a beer and watch the game for enjoyment only.
I have to confess though to being a little attracted to the ANY OTHER HOME WIN odds.
If we consider the ASP main filters:
We are looking for a game with a favourite who is 1.7 or bigger odds – France are 1.37/1.38 currently. That should disqualify the game immediately. Even if we use the more speculative 1.5 position, it still doesn’t get in. I sometimes take a bit of a cavalier attitude with this filter, after all, match odds favourite just means that this is the side that SHOULD win. But a 1.3 to 1.4 favourite is very strong.
In contrast, under 2.5 goals is available to back at 1.81 and fits very much into our go ahead filters – that is in total contrast to the match odds figure and tells me much about the real expectation tonight. Slow start, cagey game, low scoring match. And this fits in with my own personal expectation as I saw it when I did the Euro 2016 – where to begin blog. I still think 1-0 to France (maybe 2-0) or perhaps 0-0 or 1-1).
Over 3.5 goals is showing as 1.31 – that is well in line with our acceptable filter and obviously liquidity is going to be no problem at all.
0-0 is within our acceptable range (11 currently) but ANY OTHER at 7.8 to lay is outside of our safety filter even if I do find these odds attractive.
As to stats – these equally do not support ASP action on the game. Romania won their last game 5-1 and so have now shown an ability to score more than 4. Of course, I would be stunned if they could do that against the French. Equally they also very recently showed us that they can concede 4 goals (3-4 Ukraine 29th May).
Before that you have to go right back to March 2013 for a game involving 4 goals to one side that Romania were involved in. Had it not been for those last two results I would be extremely confident with an ASP trade on this game tonight, but…
Also, France managed 4-2 against Russia in March this year. Their last two games were a 3-2 win against Cameroon and a 3-0 win against Scotland. They could well be building towards good form and their top players (Giroud and Pogba) appear to be on good recent form.
If I trade it using ASP…
It will be a starting lay on ANY OTHER HOME WIN and and a 0-0 lay only after the current odds of 11 have dropped significantly. Ultimately, the lay on ANY OTHER HOME WIN on its’ own looks quite attractive to me.
I must also confess that backing over 2.5 goals looks generous at 2.2 My reason for saying this? Well, an early goal or any first half goal should give me scope to then lay over 2.5 goals for a profit whatever. It could even be a little back-up bet to laying ANY OTHER HOME WIN although you would need to treat them separately in your mind and in your tactics.
An early goal to France, of course, would put pressure on an ANY OTHER HOME WIN lay if I did go that way but I really can’t see France scoring 4 goals tonight even if the Ukraine were able to get 4 past Romania. I think that was a fluke of a game and it certainly stood out from the normal results experienced by both Romania and Ukraine up to that point. In addition, there is the big game, big event nerves to take into account. Typically, the opener can be a tight game whoever is involved.
I will be back with a little overview of the Saturday games as soon as I can.