Current odds:

Another good looking set of odds for ASP trading with one exception; over 3.5 goals is showing as 1.45. That sets off alarm bells some as the expectation in the market is not an absolute that it will be an under 3.5 goal game.

Also, with AOHW at 8.4 to lay, the market is sitting on the fence slightly. What this means, when you combine the story those two sets of odds tell, is that an expectation of 3 goals to Germany is on the cards. When a market expects 3 goals, it can easily get 4.

The question, when you set expectations for an ASP trade, then becomes one of when will the goals (that seem highly probable) come. I will try to flesh this out below.

General:

 

Germany will be extremely well set after their win against the Ukraine. They have effectively taken 3 points from the second best team in the group. Everything that follows can be enjoyed and now there will be players with their eye on the tournament top scorer award who may want to really go for it from the starting whistle. That would dictate early goals, shrinking AO odds and a trading environment that requires courage.

I noticed in the Germany v Ukraine game that AO odds were on the floor after the 19 minute first German goal and it was well into the second half before they started to stretch out again.

Kroos was brilliant against Ukraine and totally controlled the game and he is the one player that Poland will absolutely need to control in this game but it is also worth remembering that it was during the 90 minutes plus injury time spell that goal 2 came and that required the veteran Bastian Schweinsteiger to come on and score.

On the other hand, Robert Lewandowski did not perform as the Polish would have expected for such a phenomenal player and maybe he will be a different story against the Germans, bearing in mind he plays against many of the German squad in the Bundesliga every week.

So on the one hand, if Germany are really set to fire on all cylinders now, that makes this a game to be cautious with. On the other hand, they (the Germans) will know they can take full points from Northern Ireland and may decide to take a more defensive approach against Poland and they were not all over Ukraine to the point where we can say, oh my, look at the Germans, they are unstoppable.

It is a trade for me, but I will not be caught off guard by an early goal and will also not react to it with any urgency. If that proves to be a mistake, I will take my medicine and expect the possibility of a threatened AO liability and so, to counter that, I will not lay AO heavily to begin with.