Current odds:

No surprise to see very low AOAW odds here as Germany are very clearly fancied to take 3 points from Northern Ireland. The combination of AOHW and slightly higher than comfortable 3.5 goals odds serve as a warning to avoid this game. Another sign that the market is predicting a lot of goals are the 0-3 odds that are already at 8.

But let us not forget that Germany v Poland was 0-0 and this game could, therefore, go anywhere. British teams do not collapse under pressure unlike (clearly) Turkish teams so I simply cannot see a 4 goals Germany game here. The odds are the odds though so please only trade this if a) you can face a loss if it all goes Pete Tong and b) you have the determination to trade through the goals. The killer in this game could be (as with the last Spain v Turkey game) Germany hitting 3 goals quickly and then switching off.

General:

I don’t think much needs to be said here. The Germans, despite their obvious skill, were terrible against Poland and that game produced the first 0-0 result of the campaign. It seems Germany gave Poland far too much respect and played a boring defensive game as a result. Conspiracy theorists could have a field day as the result left both of them on 4 points.

The bottom line though is that Northern Ireland lost to Poland and although they were superb against the Ukraine, I cannot see them beating Germany. What they may do is stifle Germany and keep them out. So, contrary to the odds I see 0-0 just as likely (way more likely in fact) as 0-4. But the danger for Northern Ireland is that they catch Germany on the rebound.

A point, of course, will be enough for Germany to go through but not, necessarily enough for the Irish. I predict a 0-2 result to Germany. I think they will have been embarrassed by their performance against Poland and will be more like they were against the Ukraine. I may trade it but if I do it will be with the knowledge that it could be a tough game.