Odds on AO are high and Romania are token match favourites so this doesn’t look like is an ASP game at this stage.
Romania, to me have looked pretty good but were outclassed by France and thwarted by Switzerland but then we must not forget that they started this tournament as the likely candidates for 3rd spot. But let us also not forget that Albania held on for the entire 90 minutes before conceding 2 goals in extra time. So they were no pushovers.
So I declare this game an anything can happen affair. I would consider a trade following an early goal and a good drop in AO odds but it would have to be single figure AO odds to attract me and even then I am not inspired by this game as a trading prospect.
Some facts (mostly courtesy of the BBC):
- Bogdan Stancu of Romania is only the third player to score more than one penalty in a Euros finals tournament and he has of course now scored two from the spot in this competition.
- Romania are also the first side to win penalties in consecutive European Championship finals games since England (in 2000 v Romania and then in 2004 v France). When a team scores from a penalty does it carry the same form value as a straight goal?
- Switzerland in the game against Romania had more shots on goal than they have ever managed before in the Euros and will consider that game a lucky draw for Romania.
- Romania have kept just one clean sheet in their 15 European Championship finals games (0-0 v France in June 2008).
- The first half of the France V Albania game was the first European Championship finals game without a first-half shot on target since (strangely) France v Romania at Euro 2008.
- Albania have conceded both the earliest (Switzerland’s Schar after five minutes) and the latest goal (France’s Payet on 96 minutes) at Euro 2016 so far. Does this indicate lapses in concentration as a tendency of Albania’s defence?
France are already at 6 points and are going through in this group. A win in this game is an absolute must for Romania and anything less than that will put them out. It is mathematically possible for Albania to still qualify on the four best 3rd places rule. It seems likely that 3 points in the end will make this possible although 4 points probably guarantees qualification. The task of qualifying is therefore much harder for Albania.
As I said, anything can happen in this game but if forced to a prediction it would be 1-0 to Romania.