New ASP members must treat this post with caution. This game WAS not an ASP game based on filters and I offer this post purely for information purposes to show what can be done with ASP.
I don’t do too many ASP trades these days because my time is very heavily consumed by other things so I choose games first and foremost that are likely to be a little more challenging to read and, if possible, a wee bit exciting. Of course, that is nearly impossible to achieve in most cases.
With an international competition like the World Cup you have to rely, to a very large extent, on your read of the game, what’s happening within the game is critical so it’s good to watch it if you can or, at the very least use a good scanner system to monitor action in it – (I use this one >> IN PLAY SCANNER). And, of course, you need to rely on your confidence and skill.
My expectation of the Russia v Saudi Arabia game was that Russia would comfortably win but only with a goal or two. The media and pundits were harping on about these two teams being the lowest rated in the competition so to hear them speak you would have assumed that this game was likely going to head for 0-0. That was never my personal view fortunately and I planned accordingly.
So, let’s get to the outcome of the trades and then the explanation.
Russia were very strong favourites so the AOHW odds were easy to lay into at 10. I layed for a small £5 (1) and then I layed 0-0 at odds of 10.50 for £3 (2). Now, I don’t often get straight in like this on 0-0 ( I prefer to wait until the odds have dropped some in game) but we’re talking opening game of the World Cup, host side playing and you have to expect the quick opening goal. I would not be so conceited as to say who I expected it from, in my mind it could just as easily be the Saudi’s trying to shock the hosts into submission as it could be the hosts wanting to get the crowd buzzing for them.
As it transpired, there was no goal until 12 minutes in when the Russians went 1-0 up. That was a little disappointing really as I would liked to have gone in a little more on 0-0. But on the other hand, 0-0 liability gone…
In my mind now, was the very distinct possibility that, as these were poor teams (apparently – although Russia didn’t look that poor to me), we could go into a lull and, indeed we did for a good 30 minutes.
I have so often seen this in international matches. One team scores and then sits back and relaxes a little too much.
I wasn’t surprised though when a second goal went in to Russia just before half-time. Saudi Arabia were terrible. They just kept giving the ball away and, frankly, it looked like Russia could have scored 4 or 5 goals before half-time. I had decided to lay 2-0 pretty much as soon as the second went in but, it was nearly half-time so I was definitely going to wait until the second half before deciding exactly when to lay it.
The second half commenced and I thought I would watch for a while before the 2-0 lay, Not too long though. I layed at around 11 or 12 minutes into the second half. Now, if you are going to do these correct score lays in game you need them to have an impact, so I layed this one for £10 (3). For me a liability on AOHW at around the £20 to £30 mark is not going to phase me too much if I have it wrong, likewise, as the odds on the 2-0 lay were only 3.65 (3) when I took action, a liability of around £18 and pennies (that increased to nearly £23 of course when I backed AOHW a little later (4)) I wasn’t going to be too upset if I somehow left it there. Not my intention of course.
I didn’t have to wait very long after backing away the liability on AOHW before goal three came in. In fact I was treated to goal 3 within 3 to 4 minutes of killing the AOHW liability. After that, it was feet up, glass of beer and watching CASH-OUT until it went past £8 (5). Using cash-out is, of course, the lazy way to put it all to bed but I do so enjoy using it. There was no cash-out facility you know when I first launched ASP back in 2014 (or was it late 2013).
Job done, nice easy £8 profit from what was originally £8 starting lays. Remember that, if possible, any lay after the original AO and 0-0 lays, should reduce your maximum possible loss, never increase it
After these blogs historically, I always get emails about why I do not stake higher. So I will answer them in advance. I a) do not want to frighten anybody away by presenting ASP as a large bank only system because it isn’t. And b) I do this for fun so I don’t want to be feeling stressed out over the possibility of losing more than I need to just because I decide to add a little new content for you guys.
Looking at the menu for today, 15th June, I think Uruguay should beat Egypt but I don’t expect more than a couple of goals. Maybe 0-1, 0-2 or even 1-2. I may have a dabble but I am not going to jump in early on 0-0.
Morocco v Iran should be a relatively easy win for the North Africans but the odds on AOHW make this game nearly impossible to trade unless I wait for a goal…
Spain v Portugal has 0-0 draw written all over it – don’t like this as a trader at all.
Enjoy the World Cup …