The odds here suggest that 4 plus to Spain is distinct possibility. The level of odds at around 8 to lay currently for AOHW surprise me though knowing how much Turkey can stick in and defend and make it difficult to score. If Spain are now able to relax some and play as they potentially can, then the low AOHW is understandable.
I discussed Turkey quite a bit in the Croatia, Czech Republic review and think I’ve covered them pretty much. Suffice to say that I think this should be a good ASP trading game and there should be goals but overall I would be surprised if Spain were to win with 4 or more. If Spain approach this too comfortably of course, even a 0-0 result would not surprise me
Spain should be encouraged by their first game if only for the benefit it provides in calming their nerves. Perhaps they are now getting back to what they can really do and what is expected of them.
Some facts from the first games played by these two teams:
- Spain showed a lack of confidence against the Czech’s for much of the game and no more so than around the edge of the penalty area with their reluctance to shoot at goal. That may change now against Turkey with the pressure off some and 3 points in the bag.
- Spain were not as comfortable as they normally are in defence in their first game. Remember that clearance off the line by Fabregas?
- Andres Iniesta looked pretty good for Spain in the first game and I expect that this game against Turkey will be the same for him. He seems to be the hub around which the Spanish team play. If Turkey can keep him out of it, that would make it hard for Spain.
- Spain are almost impossible to score against if you look at Euro stats. You have to go back 7 Euro games to find the last time they conceded a goal and some 13 games for the last time they lost in the Euros.
- Turkey can, for sure, stifle a game and yet they did show the odd sign of goal-threatening play on occasions against Croatia. If they throw themselves at this and take the view that they are out if they lose, they could shock Spain with a goal.
I expect a 2-0 win to Spain. I would not be surprised though to see a 1-1 if Turkey were to get lucky and score first. 2-1 to Spain has to be a possibility based on that or even 3-0 or 3-1. That seems like clutching at straws but everything comes down to this:
Will Spain attack this game or try to simply secure a point?