Current odds (Portugal v Wales):
Not surprisingly, the odds currently do not lend themselves to an ASP game. 1-0 to Portugal appears to be the market view. Only an early goal will open this up for trading.
Clearly, we all want to see Wales win I’m guessing and there is no reason to think that the task is beyond them. You simply cannot underestimate the fantastic result they had against Belgium. Portugal finally killed the Icelandic dream but can we compare that feat with Wales beating the world’s second best team (according to FIFA)? No, I don’t think we can.
The biggest concern is that Wales will not have Aaron Ramsey and Ben Davies to call on because of their bans. Ramsey particularly will be badly missed as he has been an absolute dynamo for them. Portugal could be without Pepe which would compensate slightly as he has been absolutely brilliant in defence.
Personally, I could do with at least one game to trade in the Euros as I haven’t traded now since the Wales v Belgium game back on 1st July (quarter finals) but I can’t see this one or the other semi-final game being it. I am going with my heart here and Wales making it to the final. That would really put the icing on the cake for them. It will not be easy though as Portugal are all too often party poopers. Still, we could hope that Ronaldo has a really bad day and no-one else steps in to fill the void.
Current odds (Germany v France):
The market is predicting an even tighter game here than the Portugal v Wales game with 1-1 seen as the most likely result. Again, ASP seems unlikely unless an early goal opens it up.
I disagree with the market and even though (Iceland game aside) they haven’t been scoring until late in the games, I have been impressed with France. I think the methodical Germans will be hard work but they are without their best (current form) striker with Gomez injured and Thomas Muller just doesn’t seem tos core in the big tournament games.
My prediction is 2-0 to France. Maybe 2-1 if Germany catch them on the break. Without Gomex though, where will German goals come from?
I want France to win and I think they will but Germany are always a nightmare to beat. If France play the open and attacking game they apparently demonstrated against Iceland, Germany could find holes and they may just finally find someone capable of putting it in the net.
There isn’t much more I can say now as the Euros come to an end. I will not be around for the final on 10th July as I will be on a plane heading for Malaysia. I hope you have enjoyed the Euros and I also hope that the little insights I have given, especially during the group stages were useful for you. Enjoy your ASP trading!