Again the odds tell us that this is not an ideal game for ASP.
ANY OTHER AWAY WIN (Croatia are favourites) is currently showing 24 to lay. In the starting manuals for ASP I make the point that we are ideally looking for ANY OTHER odds of up to 16 to lay. This figure was set back when the correct score market had not separated home, away and draw and simply referred to 4 goal plus games as ANY UNQUOTED.
I think there is merit, therefore, in extending the ideal maximum cap from 16 to 20 BUT (and it is a big BUT) only where adjusting the liability accordingly is concerned. If you feel that a liability of £50 on AO is enough then you must cut your staking cloth accordingly. So. if your thing is a £50 maximum liability then, at odds of 20, set a stake at £2.63 or maybe £3. Not much of a stake but it keeps you comfortable. Clearly an allowance should be made for the probability of 4 goals in a high AO odds game (we must assume it is basically unlikely given the odds) and also don’t forget that whatever you intend to lay on 0-0 will reduce the AO liability by the total 0-0 staking amount.
Why do I mention this here? In relation to this particular game? Well, I do think Croatia will win and I do think they could win easily and I believe there will be goals. However, let me apply caution here immediately. This game could go anywhere and I will come back to this point shortly after finishing the odds and stats overview.
The match odds and over and under odds all make this game look playable so we are really just being “thwarted” by ANY OTHER.
0-0 at odds of around 9 to lay tells us to expect a tight bore draw – I actually disagree (and I apologise here because I base this largely on instinct again but there is evidence to support it). The 0-0 odds are a reflection of the sometimes stifling tactics employed by Turkey. In fact Turkish football is very largely based around the defend first and counter-strike principle and often they take some breaking down as a result.
Croatia, though, should have the measure of them. They have flare and historically they are midfield driven and show attacking prowess. They have very talented players in Ivan Rakatic, Mario Mandzukic and Luka Modric along with Nikola Kalinic who could be one of the best strikers in the competition if he is given any room to play. If all 4 of those guys are on the field, watch out Turkey! All that said, Turkey do also score goals in most of their games but will often hold the opposition to 0-0 in the first half.
A good time to remind you all to think clearly about 0-0. If you check through my game summary on France V Romania you will see that once again (as I often do) I did not rush to kill off my 0-0 liability in full at or before halftime. So many ASP users kill potential profit by being too paranoid about 0-0. Absolutely reduce it but DON’T treat a 0-0 liability at halftime as if it is an absolute loss. France and Romania demonstrated that perfectly.
They haven’t played each other since the qualification games for the last Euros in 2012. In their two meetings for that, Croatia won 3-0 and they had a 0-0 draw. Croatia qualified and Turkey didn’t. Looking at other results against other opposition, ignoring their last two games (both 1-0 results) Turkey have been involved in over 2.5 goal games quite consistently, notably beating Austria (considered very strong currently) and Sweden 2-1. They have finished at 0-0 only twice in the last 22 games ( Greece and Azerbaijan) hardly a staggering number.
Croatia come here off the back of a 10 goal hammering they dished out to San Marin0. No big surprise there you might think, it is San Marino after all but both Mario Mandzukic and Nikola Kalinic scored a hat-trick for Croatia and (as a side note) Madzukic was also the equal top scorer in Euro 2012, albeit with only 3 goals. Croatia strike me as a team on form.
They are also very experienced and a settled squad that has been together for a few years now. I believe they will win and there will be over 2.5 goals in this game. I am also very suspicious of the ANY OTHER odds at 24. I can see this actually going to 4 goals – it’s unlikely overall but possible as I don’t believe Turkey are as ready as Croatia and I think Croatia will be on a massive high after their 10-0 outing.
What will I do? Honestly, right now, I am undecided but I am leaning towards trading this but starting with 0-0 lays only and taking a nibble at AO after a goal. Of course, if there are no goals in the end and my analysis proves to be totally incorrect then I will potentially take a wee beating. We shall see. If you are going to trade it pay heed to my suspicions about ANY OTHER. It is more of a feeling than anything that I could back up with evidence but I have learned to trust my feelings on such matters. That is why coming into AO after a goal appeals, especially an early goal and especially at nice low (preferably single figure) odds. In fact, without a single figure AO lay opportunity the attraction as a betting match is hard to see short of a straight bet on over 2.5 goals.