This game serves as a good reminder about how expectation can help you so much when trading. Many of you probably wonder why I have been bothering to declare my feelings about how a game is going to go in advance of the game itself, after all, it would have been easy for me to save myself some work and just do the “after game” bit.
Hopefully though, this game (and others previously, and maybe some to come) will clearly show you the reason that it is important to have an expectation of where the game is going to go. This enables you to take the best action you can as a game develops. Of course you are not always going to get it right but you must start somewhere with the basics of a plan so that you can react accordingly.
With this France v Ireland game I expected 2-0 to France but expressed that the Irish could get a “shock” goal. When Ireland got a very early penalty awarded in their favour, this crystalised (reinforced if you like) my feeling that the game could well end 2-1 to France and so I decided that I would lay the current scoreline of 0-1 to Ireland and then do nothing else unless I felt I had to reverse that decision (back 0-1 again later in the game) or my AO liability really started to look threatened.
Neither of those things happened but I was moving towards a point where I would have had to turn the game to a loss by backing 0-1 at lower than desirable odds, when France equalised at 59 minutes. The odds on 0-1 were just dipping under 4 at this point and I was going to take action at 3.2 or 3 to reverse.
The screen image below shows the story and once it was 1-1, I had no intention of doing anything else. It ended 2-1 to France, right in the zone I had anticipated when I wrote the brief preview.