Germany were certainly up for this one; a goal at 8 minutes, almost another at 13 minutes (when Oezil missed a penalty), and then the second goal at 43.

With a 3rd goal to Germany at 63 minutes I very much expected the first 4 goal result of the tournament and, again, this very much followed my expectation of the game. Having decided to trade this (even though I was a little reluctant to do so) I knew I had to protect my AO liability. Again, I indicated that it would be wise to do so in my preview write up.

So, here’s the quick run down:

I lay AOHW to start it all off for £6 at odds of 10.50 pre-game and follow that with a 0-0 lay of £4 at odds of 10. To give extra protection to AO (which I always expected to be a possibility in this game) I backed 3-0 and 3-1 before the start for £2 each to create a boost to those two positions. I don’t often do this but occasionally I feel it is wise to create a little insurance this way or, as an alternative, you can do this sometimes by backing over 3.5 goals (not good enough odds for that in this instance). So I created a £10 middle pot reduced to £6 because of the “insurance”.

I layed 1-0 and 2-0 when Germany scored their first 2 and, frankly, I should have gone a little heavier on 2-0 than I did but I knew I had a good measure of cover with the extra pots created on 3-0 and 3-1.

When 3-0 came at 63 minutes I layed that for £15 and also layed another £4 on 3-1. From then on I started to think about cash-out. Straight after the 3rd German goal, this didn’t look as generous as I was hoping with an absolute loss of nearly £10 so I continued with my nearly -£30 liability on AOHW for a little while longer. But it wasn’t too long before this dropped to below -£5  on cash-out and then -£4 and I soon took the cash-out option leaving just under -£4 everywhere.

I then waited a little while longer and layed 3-0 a touch more to take the loss there to -£5.50 but put AOHW into a small profit again. The 4th German goal would have left me a few pennies in profit but it didn’t come, I lost -£5.52 but I was still £5 in profit over the two games so far today and, more importantly, I followed golden rule number 1 and protected my AO liability first and foremost.

SP is about winning overall, not on every game. And I still may get something out of the Hungary v Belgium game if I do it.
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