As I write this the game still has a few minutes to go but my feeling that this could be a 4 goal game to Spain was a good call. That said, all the way through it I was still wondering if I should have traded it but it would have been a nervous bit of trading even for me because of the seemingly easy and early collapse of Turkey when the Spanish went 2 up.

In the second half when Spain went 3 up I really thought then that it was going to turn into a slaughter but, as so often is the case, with 3 goals under their belt they took the foot off the gas completely. Turkey were dreadful and even though in the end I could probably have taken a profit from this or at least got out of any real trouble, I’m glad I left it alone.

It did remind me to bring up the subject of cash-out. Sometimes in a game that does cause you concern you can often go for a cash-out option that either minimises a loss across the board or even allows for a small profit so do watch for that.

 


    4 replies to "Update: Spain V Turkey"

    • Paul

      Hi John,

      I wouldn’t know what the cashout would have been at 2-0, 3-0 as I use Fairbot to conduct trades, and cashout wouldnt be an option as the bot takes into account the impossible 0-0 in its cashout calculations. I realise now from your comment that i shouldnt have used the O2.5 market at 2-0 as the odds I got were 1.25 to lay, which is too high. You asked what the O3.5 lay odds were, they were the same around 1.25 when i looked, so didnt take that option after already losing ¬£9 on the over 2.5 lay.

      I still have a lot to learn to make this a profitable venture for me, as its when games get difficult that I lose the most, plus not making enough when games go my way.

      Cheers,
      Paul

      • John Duncan

        You may have got the loss down quite a bit more by dropping the 2.5 goal play and sticking with just the 3.5. That said though, everyone has to go through a learning curve and most people just need the confidence to do it on more games. Let’s be clear as well, cup competitions and tournaments are not the best places to look for ASP trade, I just like them becauue you can be challenged (yes) but also find some gems.

    • Paul

      I took a hit of -28 on this game unfortunately. Was considering options on lay 1-0, back auhw when it went to 2-0, then I layed 2-0 heavily with over 2.5 goal cover in case it sticked, which of course it didnt. If only i didnt then cover the 3-0 lay with an over 3.5 lay, I would have only lost 10. Sods law I guess that I chose to cover 2-0, but not 3-0.

      Oh well, never mind, onto the next game eh
      (-;

      Cheers,
      paul

      • John Duncan

        Hi Paul

        Unlucky mate, I was very much in two minds as to whether to trade it or not but I always felt that if the Spanish were up for it they could score plenty of goals. That’s really the big key with ASP, if you feel uncertain about a game even if the odds tell you it’s a good one, then you should leave it. That said we learn much more from the losing games than from the winners frankly.

        I would be curious to know if Cashout would have reduced your loss any? More often than not these days, because cash out will draw funds from anything green, it is often a simpler way out of losses or to reduce them more.

        I think using 2.5 or 3.5 goals is a good exit strategy but only when the odds offered to lay them are really low. I didn’t pay too much attention to odds in this game (naturally as I didn’t trade it) but I would be surprised if over 3.5 to lay ever got very low. Certainly not towards the 1.1 (or less) you need to effectively use that. Just a guess though, maybe it did.

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