The Email:

Hi,

Sorry for bothering you again, but I would like to ask your opinion about the Euro matches so far.. Because I find it difficult to trade these matches somehow, although I had been profitable with ASP before..

For example, yesterday on the France and Hungary games (I traded these only) I made a small loss. Because I wanted to get out on AU in the France game when  it  went to 2-1 and quite early. And in the Hungary game even at 0-1 HT the odds of AU (AO) were still very low to get out. Of course I layed 0-1 but it stayed like that for long. In the second half I managed to lower the AU (AO) liability, but I didn’t expect to  have 3 more goals that late and fast in the second half.

I might be wrong and that’s why I am writing you. I don’t know why these games seem more difficult somehow.

Cheers,

E**er

My Reply:

Hi E**er

First off, generally speaking, these aren’t the type of games you would choose to trade ASP with simply because you cannot assess form in the normal sense because these guys don’t play each very often at all. Therefore they are always going to have the potential to be difficult.

I am blogging trades on the Euros when I do them because they often contain good training material and I am blogging the contest so closely so that you can can choose to simply use the whole thing for training rather than actually for trading.

I did a trading blog on the France game and you can see what I did there. Obviously, what I did isn’t what you did and the difference is this point about EXPECTATION. I wrote up on my expectations on the game before I traded the game and I then traded it according to my expectations.

I didn’t trade Hungary v Belgium but I have done a blog on that anyway explaining how I would have traded it so that should help with that game for you.

I hope you don’t mind, but I think your email is of great value to people so I am going to copy it and my reply as another blog (I will keep your name out of it of course).

John

Further Points Not Emailed:

Trading is something that you should only carry out when you feel confident to do so and certainly only within your range of acceptable loss thinking or, comfort zone. One thing I always try to put across, (and the primary reason why, when I trade for demonstration purposes that I always keep my stakes low), is that if the loss (the liability) in the end will not hurt you, then you have little to fear and it is a perfectly good thing to aim for small but multiple little wins. You gain profit by winning consistently and regularly – the only losers are those that quit on it before they have mastered that critical point.

In time, when you have mastered trading ASP style, the profit will come simply because you are doing everything right 90% of the time and you are doing enough of it. You don’t have to get it right 100% of the time (I don’t, no-one does). The starting point with everything is EXPECTATION and that is expectation game by game of your anticipated outcome and expectation overall of what is a realistic outcome. You can’t expect, for example, to lay for £5 and win £100.

You can expect, however, to select the right games and win £3 to £4 per game, eventually growing to £6 or £7 and then £10 or £11 and so on. The most important part of winning is knowing how to lose and keeping those losses down to a minimum.

I will always try, in these blogs, to guide you towards the right way of doing it. I am not 100% perfect every time myself but I will be right most of the time simply because of the experience I have built up.

I thank that customer for his email and I hope that it serves to educate us all some.