World Cup 2018, 1st July Catch Up

I haven’t had a lot of time on my hands over the last two days although I have been doing some (not strictly by the book) trading. In my last post on 28th June I mentioned that I thought the Senegal v Colombia game was the only real trader for me and I predicted a draw in this game. I was fairly confident that I had read that game correctly before it started and so I was a bit surprised at the outcome.

Nevertheless I was very confident about an AOAW lay and my plan was to do no more in-play trading unless I got a chance to lay an early goal. I was a little less confident about the 0-0 lay and, at first I was going to lay just the £2 but, on further reflection, I figured that if I settled for another £2 on 0-0 and another £2 on AO that would give me a reasonable little earner without any need for further in play action.

As you can see, I layed AOAW for £7 at odds of 14 and layed 0-0 for £4 at odds of 12.50. The game went on some without a goal and I have to confess that I had started to consider taking a cash out option and locking in a loss whatever the outcome of (I believe) around £10. So -£10 if no goal came in before I clicked the cash out button and +£10 if it did. Just before clicking the button, Colombia scored. I still expected an equaliser after that but the game ended 0-1. A bit of a gamble in the end but if you watched the game you’d know that it was a miracle that no goal had gone in earlier.

Moving on to yesterday and resisting the urge to discuss the tactical defeat that England suffered on Thursday, I was away during the day yesterday. And I was driving when the France v Argentina game was on so I couldn’t even have told you what the odds before kick off were had it not been shown to me in an email that one of our ASP users sent me. They were, indeed very high odds and the market (and I) absolutely wasn’t expecting a 4-3 outcome.

As for the evening game, Uruguay v Portugal, I walked through the door and had just fired the computer up in time to see Uruguay score. That left me with but a few options to consider not having had time to study the game and see the first few minutes (always important to get a feel for who’s up for it and who just wants to defend). I didn’t feel comfortable at that stage with an AO lay so I opted for a lay on 1-0. Ten minutes into the second half, Portugal equalised and then, less than 10 minutes after that, Uruguay scored again and that proved to be the final goal of the game.

A fortuitous win for me? Profit is profit and I had plenty of time to consider cash out or reducing/killing off my 1-0 liability when the second goal of the game went in so it wasn’t too much of a gamble really. I had been expecting that we might see the first game to go into extra time and maybe even penalties as I had judged these two sides to be pretty equal. In the end though, as the game developed, you had to say that Uruguay were worthy winners and the Suarez, Cavani partnership looked particularly impressive.

And now a quick look at today’s two games…

Spain v Russia. If you judge Spain to be vastly superior to Russia then AOHW is a big threat. Given that Portugal and Spain ended 3-3 and Uruguay easily beat Russia, you have to say that is a big threat so I will not be trading this one. If Russia were to win here, this could easily be the biggest shock of the tournament and as good as they looked in their first two games I think we now know that Russia excelled against poor opposition. So I have to go with a Spain win here. I don’t think they will beat them with 4 goals or more as we should take account of Russia losing a man to a red card in the game against Uruguay with more than half the game to go.

Croatia v Denmark. The Croatians have looked very impressive and you have to expect a win for them here but Denmark will not make it easy. They hardly seem like a goal scoring side with a grand total of two goals in total from their 3 games but they will defend like crazy and hope to score on the break or from the penalty spot. Can you trade this one? The AOHW is a little too high for my taste and the market is all out adamant about sub 2.5 goals. So a 1-0 scoreline is, unsurprisingly, the markets favourite choice. I can’t see much point in disagreeing with that but having watched the Croatians through the group stages I definitely think they could score more. Again, I have to declare that, for me, short of an early goal tempting me into an AOHW lay (even then highly unlikely) I will be watching only.

 

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