Portugal v Morocco looks like an out an out ASP trader based on the odds so I will be looking to have a go here but I can’t help thinking that, based on what we saw in the round one games, Portugal could take them apart. So any trading on this game must be commenced with the belief that it could get busy. That said, you never can tell with this competition and the 2.5 goals market is declaring under (I am not convinced). Morocco will be reeling from the late goal from Iran that deprived them of any points and they may create a few opportunities. My problem (in assessment) is how good (or bad) are Morocco the game against Iran told us nothing except that the Iranians can defend well when put under pressure. I will not be going crazy with this one, I am happy to admit a little nervousness and I would advise caution by all.
With Uruguay v Saudi Arabia it’s hard to see anything other than a win for the South Americans. They were hardly impressive against Egypt in game one but they did beat them. Saudi Arabia are, so far, the worst team I have seen in this contest so an easy win for Uruguay must be on the cards. The question then becomes “how many goals”. The 2.5 goals market is screaming under so if we believe that (and I am more inclined to believe it in this game over the Portugal one), it makes the 4.3 AOHW odds look very attractive. If I do this one, it will be a very slow and possibly late entry into 0-0 after a tickle on AOHW.
Once again the Iran v Spain game seems to be stacking up for ASP based on odds. This one looks to be more likely to produce goals according to the over 2.5 odds. The odds seem well balanced but here’s the thing; Portugal and Spain put 3 goals past each other. Now, is that because of poor defending by both teams or simply because there is such fierce competition between them that no-one could have stopped the flow of goals? Football often does not make sense and the markets at Betfair want it both ways. They make the Mediterranean’s both hot favourites in their games and yet don’t seem confident about goals. My view on the Spain game is clear. It is exactly the same as the Portugal game, I expect goals, I will not be surprised at over 4 to to the favourites and I am going to be cautious.
In fact, I am going to have to be ultra cautious today as I may need to multi-task through much of this. Other urgent matters cannot be postponed so if I miss some of the action it will be down to that. Early profit opportunities will be my real focus if possible.