There really isn’t much to say about yesterday really, all games ended 1-0/0-1 and I couldn’t get on either of the Portugal or Uruguay games because of having to deal with work matters and ended up only having the time to do the Spain game. Two easy profit opportunities missed but at least I got one in the bag.
I watched that last game all the way through and I have to say that Iran were really plucky and a little unlucky not to score (well, technically, they did but it was disallowed). From the ASP point of view it was a very simple game for me. Again, I should say it wasn’t a game based on the filters but I did it anyway mostly, to be honest, because it was the only one I could get on.
I layed AOAW prior to kick off for £11 with odds of 4.7. The 0-0 odds were too high for my taste at the start and I planned to lay that later when it dropped. As it transpired, I was back out of AO, just 25 minutes into the first half when the odds increased to around 9 and then left it right up until the second half kicked off to lay 0-0 for £11 at odds of 4.8.
I reasoned that the risk on it remaining 0-0 was very low and kept expecting Spain to start playing, besides, I would have easily been able to back out of 0-0 again later if the odds started to head towards evens, even if that meant taking a small hit. In the end, the goal came within 10 minutes of the second half kicking off and that secured a nice profit regardless of the outcome. The goal rush I half expected from Spain never materialised and I (and the market) was wrong on that count.
Let’s take a look at today’s games. Again, it’s going to be hard for me to trade today although I will look to try to get one game in again if possible. Perhaps the evening one again.
The Iran v Spain Betfair detail is at the bottom.
Denmark v Australia – AO odds are too high at the moment for my taste. Australia were surprisingly resilient before going down against France and Denmark (apart from their astounding goalkeeper) didn’t look that great in their opener and you have to believe that Peru would have won that game had they not missed that critical penalty and been a little luckier. On paper it is an ASP game except for those weighty AO odds. An early(ish) goal might bring it into play a little easier? That’s not a recommendation, just an observation. I’ve got to assume a Danish win here but who knows really…
With France v Peru the odds go the way of France but if Peru can lift themselves after their terrible luck against Denmark where, frankly, they were by far the better side, maybe the realisation that they need to beat France to keep their World Cup hopes alive might do the trick for them. I hope I get to see and trade this one, I think it could be an exciting game if Peru really go for it. The odds and filters are perfect for an ASP game with both 0-0 and AOHW showing now at around 11/12. In the end we should expect France to come through or at least hang on to a draw – 0-0 of course is the danger here but I just feel that goals will come with Peru doing their best to stay in the competition.
And then there’s Argentina v Croatia. All the filters stack up except for a high set of AO odds. I wouldn’t lay AO personally at anything over 17 but it is feasible with reduced stakes. More and more these days I prefer to take a chance on the lower AO odds games but it isn’t a great idea for a novice to try. Again, I would maybe look for an early goal prior to getting involved (not a recommendation, just an alternative approach).
Croatia look to have a reasonably good side and Argentina looked poor against Iceland apart from that inspired and brilliant Aguero goal. Frankly, I was hoping Iceland would beat them as they were really taking the game to the South Americans. Croatia would do more with the opportunities that Iceland had and I think Argentina will be aware of that and a draw isn’t enough for them. So it comes down to Lionel Messi. He wasn’t himself in the opener, maybe he will be today.
Croatia, of course, probably would go through with a draw and I just hope that doesn’t stifle the game and see them build a wall and stay behind it. But, we’ve seen Argentina respond before when their backs are against the wall and, because of that, I think they may be a different side today and win it.