I will not be trading today but here’s my view on the games from a trading perspective:

Brazil v Costa Rica – favourite odds, under 2.5 goals odds and the odds on AO disqualify this as an ASP game, however, were I actively trading today, I wouldn’t do this game anyway as I expect a backlash from Brazil having been held to a draw with The Swiss. The FIFA World Rankings have Switzerland 6th in the world currently, so the draw with Brazil was as much about their competence as it was about Brazil (ranked 2nd in the World) having an off day. Costa Rica are a different proposition and I could easily see several goals in this game. That said, this is the only game I would consider trading were I involved today and it would all be off the back of an AOHW lay. Not recommended for anyone other than a really seasoned trader.

Nigeria v Iceland – I have to favour Nigeria even after seeing Iceland’s plucky fight with Argentina but, on paper, there is little to choose between these two, albeit Iceland rank way higher than Nigeria in World Ranking terms. Truth is, I don’t really know how to read this game. Croatia beat Nigeria 2-0 but then they went on to beat Argentina 3-0 in one of the most enjoyable football matches I have seen in an age. So based on that alone, Nigeria probably have something about them. First game nerves always plays a part, so perhaps Croatia didn’t play as well against the African side because of an element of that. Last night’s game also puts Iceland’s result against Argentina into perspective. The South Americans were awful and so maybe Iceland weren’t quite as plucky as I thought. So, Nigeria to edge a win or, perhaps, a draw is what I expect here and that would, of course, give Argentina a way back in if Croatia beat Iceland in the last group game. As for ASP, the AO odds tell you this is a non-starter. The big message from me here, is this is unreadable.

Serbia v Switzerland – Serbia were efficient against Costa Rica but hardly exciting. I don’t think they stand much chance against the Swiss. However the Swiss are not great at scoring goals. They are grinders and that’s how they held Brazil. An early goal could, theoretically, open this up for a trade I guess but I wouldn’t expect that either. However, an International side does not get ranked 6th in the World for nothing. So that’s why the Swiss are clear game winners in my mind. The game odds tell us absolutely nothing except that it isn’t an ASP trader and the market isn’t expecting much at all.

So, not much going on today and a very good day for me to stay out of it. I will be back tomorrow at some point with further insights if all goes well.

    2 replies to "World Cup 2018, 22nd June Games"

    • PaulLucas

      As an ASP rookie I am giving World Cup matches a wide berth. In addition to many of the filters and odds not being met as you have often pointed out, this is also due to the limited nature of head to head data and variation in squads and formations used in pre-tournament qualifying and friendly matches compared with the World Cup itself making the outcome of fixtures seem much less predictable than domestic league match-ups. Nonetheless, I am very grateful for your insights and it is great to see some new entries in The Diary!

      • John Duncan

        If I had more time I would do a lot more of this. I have to make a special effort for the World Cup though, it is the most exciting football tournament of them all after all.


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