Belgium v Tunisia is, on paper, a game that could produce a number of goals. The AO odds indicate a market that expects 4 goals or more to Belgium. Realistically though, we’ve only seen 4 plus in one game – Russia’s opening match. The nature of the World Cup is hard to define. We always expect national sides to give their absolute all and yet find ourselves frequently surprised by their (often) lack-lustre performances (Argentina, for example, against Croatia).
So Belgium will be feeling pretty confident against Tunisia but Tunisia hardly gave up against England and proved to be tougher opposition than expected. So why wouldn’t they give Belgium a good, hard run for their money? I feel that Belgium will win and, like England, with maybe a 2-1 or perhaps 2-0 victory. I wouldn’t be confident about an AO lay though because, there is no question if (and it is a big IF) they put it all together against Tunisia, there could easily be a goal rush. This is a watch rather than trade game for me. I think the market odds on over 2.5 goals (out of our filter range) are underestimating the goal potential.
South Korea v Mexico: The market odds are saying Mexico to win but with few goals. Under 2.5 is favoured and the AOAW is in the trading range along with 0-0. Are 0-0 or 4 plus goals reasonable possibilities? Well, the World Cup is nothing if not unpredictable. I saw a very useful Mexico side play Germany and although I don’t see 0-0 as an outcome, I would not be surprised at a comprehensive Mexico win. That said, South Korea were plucky against Sweden and not easy to break down.
The question then is how poor are the Germans this time around? How good are the Mexicans? And were Sweden deserving of their win against South Korea? For me the answers are that Germany were taken by surprise and will improve. Mexico are definitely good enough to overwhelm South Korea and Sweden are not good enough to contain the Germans. I think the market is correct with the South Korea v Mexico game and the result will be a Mexico win by 1 or two goals. I would trade this with greater emphasis on a 0-0 lay over an AOHW lay and take it from there. South Korea never looked remotely like goal scorers but they can defend.
Germany v Sweden: The market is saying look out for a German whiplash. The odds favour over 2.5 goals and under 3.5 goals is not a confident set of odds at 1.5. Those two filters alone take it out of ASP territory. Is it a trader for me though? With AOHW odds at around 7.6/7.8 it is not unattractive. I would need to see a good slide down on 0-0 odds to lay that but, all in all, I may be tempted. Definitely not an ASP game though as one of our most indicative filter (over 2.5 goals) heavily favours over.