World Cup 2018, 3rd July Spotlight

I did actually trade both games yesterday in the end but I didn’t do anything you could call “ASP” so it probably isn’t helpful to go into detail here other than I won £4.55 on the Brazil game and £15.20 on the Belgium game. Just in the interest of fair play, here is the proof below:

Moving on to today, we have Sweden v Switzerland and, of course, Colombia v England. Needless to say, I will not be looking to do a thing on the England game as I will be watching it in the pub and looking to enjoy the atmosphere.

Sweden v Switzerland.

The market wants us to believe that this will be a low goal-scoring affair with 0-0 the the correct score market favourite. Given how easy it is for these teams to find themselves defending over attacking, that is probably a fair and accurate assumption but I don’t see a 0-0 outcome here.

ASP will not work on this because AO odds are huge and you’d need an early goal in the game to allow for any subsequent trading which, given the market odds leaning heavily towards 0-0, seems unlikely.

Overall you have to think Switzerland are the better side on paper but they only managed one win in their three group games. Sweden in contrast managed two including a very impressive 3-0 against Mexico. The Swedes did also lose against a 10 man German team though but that was probably the most determined game Germany played. Switzerland held Brazil to a 1-1 draw and beat Serbia. The surprise was their 2-2 result against Costa Rica. If Serbia had just managed to squeeze a victory against Brazil (as unlikely as that ever seemed) Switzerland would be out.

The conclusion for me has to be that, although Switzerland are the market match odds favourites, Sweden could pull this off. From what I’ve seen, they are at least as good as the Swiss and possibly a little more determined. We could argue all day long that Mexico didn’t really turn up for their game against Sweden but the fact is the Swedes looked impressive and determined either way. I can’t argue with the 1.5 under 2.5 goals odds I see on Betfair. If this is decided in normal time I believe it’ll be with one goal. The most likely result for me at the end of normal time is 1-1 but 0-0 is also very much on the cards here even if I don’t see that happening.

Colombia v England

There isn’t much I can say. We have to win, we can win but Colombia are a tricky side to beat. We need to take charge early and harass them from the get go. If we play too cautiously we could get hit on the break. What gives me confidence above all else is that we have got pace, young legs and plenty of enthusiasm and we are going to need that against a fast and furious team like Colombia who have now got the wind in their sails. Two goals to nil for our lads would do nicely.

If you are thinking of trading this (you shouldn’t with such high AO odds) then read the market carefully. It is another 1.5 under 2.5 goals market, 0-0 and 0-1 odds are pretty much the same so it is a dice roll as to how the market will respond to a period of no goals. 0-0 will drop pretty easily and 0-1 (even if there is an early goal) cold easily be the end result so don’t get trapped there. My advice is to leave it alone. Two quick observations that might be useful:

  1. We have a good record against Colombia with 3 wins and two draws from the last 5 meetings.
  2. Jamés Rodriguez may be unfit if he plays at all and is, without a doubt, Colombia’s best player.

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