Not an ASP trader really because of high AO however, it might be worth doing all the same because who is to say that Belgium will not score first? Any Other Home Win (France) is available at 23/24 to lay – if I were to lay that and then Belgium score first that could lead to easy profit. The problem of course is that to win £10 I would need to risk £220/£230 – not so good. Because of that, I will be leaving it alone for trading unless there is an early goal that leads to a serious drop in AO odds.

Another cautionary note on the trading front is that under 2.5 goals is only marginally favourite here so if we combine that with the high end AO it makes for a potentially uncomfortable trading game.

As to who will win? The market marginally fancies France and I marginally fancy Belgium. I think I’d prefer England to have to meet Belgium in the final (of course we’re going to beat Croatia tomorrow!). In truth these two teams are hard to separate. Both have exciting, talented players and I think it really will come down to who scores first and contrary to the under 2.5 goals odds, I think that first goal could be the only goal. So, 0-1 Belgium is my call.

Enjoy the game.