Time is the issue with me today so trading is out. There isn’t too much to get excited about fortunately so I don’t think I will be missing much.
Saudi Arabia v Egypt should prove to be a win for Egypt but the game is irrelevant as Russia and Uruguay are through no matter what in group A. When games are irrelevant trading is always dodgy because one of the teams may feel there’s little pint doing much beyond turning up. That said, if we were to look at strictly odds and filters, it would be a qualifier in the strictest sense.
In the same group we have the game to decide 1st and 2nd place for qualification between Uruguay and Russia. This game is of interest to me only because I am still unsure about Russia. They’ve had two easy games frankly and this game against Uruguay will be the first real test. That said, I favour the host side to win. It isn’t a trader as AO odds are rubbish.
Iran v Portugal should hold no surprises. Portugal could settle for a draw and would still go through but Iran have to win really. That said I doubt they have enough quality to beat the Portuguese so it is likely to be a win for Portugal. Odds and features confirm this as a pretty perfect ASP game if we were to focus on that alone but we can’t do that. For starters we have a guy playing who may well have his sites set on the Golden Boot award (Ronaldo) and Iran have proven very resilient and do give us a slight question mark. If we’d seen them score a few goals it would be easier to believe that they could cause an upset but, frankly, I think this game will go as expected and we should see one or two goals go Portugal’s way.
As to Spain v Morocco, that should be a relatively easy win for the Spanish. Not a trade based on filters and odds. Under 3.5 goals is too high to be a confident 3 goals max prediction and over 2.5 is heavily favoured against under. Everything points to an easy Spain win even though they need only draw to go through.
A general point to take into account when trading this type of competition and, particularly, final group games, is that good managers will rest key players in games that are seen as non-essential. Mathematically, it could be possible if Iran were to beat Portugal for Spain to fail to qualify on a drawn outcome but it seems highly unlikely and you have to assume that even a Spanish second team would beat Morocco.
If I had the time today, I would be tempted by the Iran v Portugal game but nothing else. Finally, Wow! is all I can about England yesterday. My hope for half a dozen goals wasn’t off the mark at all and how lovely it was to see them play without the normal fear factor that has historically dominated England games. Well done Gareth Southgate and the lads.