Well I was pretty accurate in my assessment of yesterdays offerings. I correctly predicted Belgium over Brazil and a two goal win by France (which I saw no opportunity to trade). I traded the Brazil game and it turned out to be an absolute gem for ASP. My only problem with it was that I didn’t do more as it really was easy money. I started with conservative £3 lays on AOHW and 0-0 with the intention of laying more on 0-0 but, of course, a 13 minute goal hadn’t seen enough drop in the 0-0 odds to get more on there. I immediately layed 0-1 for another £3, again thinking that I would return and lay more here.
The beauty in this game, of course, was that the goal had gone to the (according to the market) “outsider”. These are always the best ASP games because the pressure isn’t on the AO you’ve layed. Within another 15 minutes, Belgium were two up before I managed any other 0-1 lay. Now at this point you have to make an assessment for the rest of the game. Laying 0-2 was simply not necessary. Even if Belgium had gone to 4, I was fire-proof having layed the Brazil AO. As it transpired, with a goal eventually going in for Brazil, I would have got away with a 0-2 lay but when you are sitting on a nice little profit with no pressure because both goals have gone in against your AO lay, then I think it is always better to leave it there. Job done for a little ASP trade and a nice little £8 plus. You can see the odds acquired in the image below.
Looking at today briefly, I am certainly not going to even think about trading the Sweden v England game (yes you guessed it, pub again for that one!) and even if I were so inclined, I wouldn’t be rushing into an AOAW at 20/21. That said, it would have to be seen as a pretty safe lay. 0-0, not so much. The Swedes are inclined to be a little defensive and no conclusion in normal time is very much a possibility.
Moving on, Russia v Croatia doesn’t do much for my trading appetite either. AOAW at around 25 is too heavy for my tastes and, whilst I do not see a goal-less normal time, the market is leaning very much that way. So for me, today it is an afternoon in the pub and maybe a nice nap to follow. For the record I do think England are going into the Semi-finals and they should be joined by Croatia but don’t be surprised if the Russians play out of their skins to cause an upset.
Footnote: This now means the World Cup is staying in Europe and will have stayed here for 4 consecutive World Cup tournaments, not something I ever thought I would see.