In the end, I did not get involved yesterday. Had I been at home in the evening I would definitely have traded the England game but I went out and watched it in the local pub instead. The other two games were a) Belgium game – too risky and b) Sweden game – too dull to get involved.
Looking at today I see that Colombia v Japan stacks up pretty much on filters and odds and yet my gut is telling me that this could be an easy Colombia win. On paper, even with their indecisive and last minute qualification to the event, Colombia to me look too strong for a very average Japan. So I could easily see this being very one-sided. Of course, the World Cup is nothing if not unpredictable so we’re probably going to see a 0-0 or 1-0 game now. I don’t fancy it at the moment, of that I am certain.
Poland v Senegal also doesn’t do much for me so I don’t think I am going to be trading this either. However I do have a bet on Senegal winning the World Cup – yes, seriously, I do. I think they have a good chance of qualifying from the group and I can see them beating or at least taking a point from Poland. All I need Senegal to do is get past the group stage and I will then lay my bet on them winning. But trading the game, doesn’t stack up for me.
That leaves Russia v Egypt and this game could really come down to one thing or, more precisely, one man. Is Mohamed Salah fit enough to tear the Russian defence apart? A lot of people (myself included) feel that he could have saved the game for Egypt had he been played against Uruguay and it bothers me that he wasn’t played. Why would you keep your best player out of the critical opening game unless you were concerned about his fitness?
It doesn’t matter now, they need Saleh to have any hope of still qualifying and they must beat Russia to do it, they can’t realistically believe a draw will be enough. Russia, in turn, will be feeling very confident about their 5-0 opener (albeit it was against dreadful opposition) but they could easily sit back and defend hoping for a draw.
The AO odds make this hard to trade. And a first goal to Egypt or any prolonged 0-0 period will make it even harder to trade. Only a reasonably early Russian goal makes this a trader in my opinion – and that is unlikely I think.
So, all in all, it doesn’t look like a good day for ASP trades (for me). That said, it is rare that the first games in the biggest football contest on the planet ever give us much in the way of trading opportunities. We should be much better placed to trade in round 2 in general.